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   ACUS11 KWNS 250943   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 250942=20   
   ALZ000-MSZ000-251115-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2228   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0342 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Parts of central MS into west-central/northwest AL   
      
   Concerning...Tornado Watch 640...   
      
   Valid 250942Z - 251115Z   
      
   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 640 continues.   
      
   SUMMARY...A localized wind-damage and tornado threat will continue   
   through early morning.   
      
   DISCUSSION...An earlier organized line segment has taken on a more   
   southwest to northeast orientation across parts of central MS,   
   parallel to the outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone that continues to   
   sag southeastward. A supercell has developed southeast of this line   
   segment and baroclinic zone, and may pose at least a short-term   
   tornado threat, given the presence of modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of   
   500-1000 J/kg) and favorable low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of greater   
   than 300 m2/s2) and moisture. Otherwise, the larger-scale QLCS may   
   pose a threat for locally damaging wind and a line-embedded tornado   
   as it moves eastward.=20   
      
   Farther north, a north-south oriented line segment has recently   
   developed across far northwest AL, along the northeast periphery the   
   larger storm cluster. While this line segment is currently moving   
   through an environment with scant surface-based buoyancy, some   
   increase in MLCAPE is possible with time as seasonably rich moisture   
   continues to stream northward. With strong low/midlevel flow in   
   place, this line segment could pose a threat for locally   
   strong/damaging gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado along the   
   southern portion of the line as it impinges upon increasingly   
   prevalent mid 60s F dewpoints.=20   
      
   While the remaining severe threat may tend to remain somewhat   
   isolated, trends will continue to be monitored regarding the need   
   for downstream watch issuance into parts of AL.   
      
   ..Dean/Hart.. 11/25/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!6By-fHtEIFDNpxXftJRSQqUIPdfKIwsMhQVHjpCogmFNyDgX15zKyohJ0tc80At2THNpGD35Y=   
   7nUcwr2uWU9EkhOMes$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...   
      
   LAT...LON   32428715 32068831 31838978 32189016 32668936 33408801   
               34168771 34238738 34368663 33668661 32638695 32428715=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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