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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1249   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   324 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025   
      
   Areas affected...northern LA/MS border into central MS/northern AL   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 250823Z - 251400Z   
      
   Summary...While the overall flash flood coverage looks to decrease   
   later this morning across MS and AL, concerns remain for localized   
   2 to 3+ inch totals from hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches. A   
   threat of flash flooding will linger through 14Z.   
      
   Discussion...08Z radar imagery showed an axis of strong   
   thunderstorms extending from western LA near DRI, northeastward   
   into central/northern MS. The most powerful section of this axis   
   was in western MS, between TVR and JAN, where some of the   
   strongest low level winds were observed with near 50 kt at 850 mb   
   from the south. A low level confluence axis from western LA into   
   northern MS remained a focus for thunderstorms, out ahead of a   
   potent vorticity max located over AR and within the   
   diffluent/divergent right-entrance region of an associated upper   
   level jet max which extended across the MS Valley into the Midwest.   
      
   Cloud tops on infrared satellite imagery have shown trends toward   
   warming overall over the past 2-3 hours, but bursts of colder   
   cloud tops remained, such as what was occurring over western MS at   
   08Z. A reservoir of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE remained from central MS   
   into central/southern LA with up to ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE northward   
   into western TN. Short term forecasts from the RAP show that as   
   the vorticity max over AR continues to translate toward the ENE,   
   925-850 mb winds will veer over southern MS/AL which will have the   
   effect of weakening the existing axis of confluence across the   
   region through 12Z. However, remnant low level   
   convergence/confluence coincident with strong upper level ascent   
   will continue a threat for heavy rain and periods of training. The   
   environment will still be capable of localized rainfall rates over   
   2 in/hr but 1 to 2 inches in an hour will be more common.   
   Therefore, through 14Z, a localized flash flood threat will remain   
   from the LA/MS border into central MS and central to northern AL   
   where 2 to 3+ inches of rain could fall in a 2 to 3 hour window,   
   with the greatest concern for flash flooding across urban or   
   otherwise sensitive/low-lying areas.   
      
   Otto   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!-jACpZSiCr5zOCEqvi3Hw1pmfCDcwp6u1VTDCrhLJLJpXYVKShjKP0joJgzuyv8YHhtI=   
   qpK0qVxJeQoKvKualHte1yI$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...LCH...LIX...MEG...MOB...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   34998668 34728550 33428524 32468689 31268959=20   
               30999128 31309200 31769195 32099144 32569074=20   
               33528925 34128831=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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