TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167017.weather@1:2320/105 2d8d1d2e   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 250728   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 250728=20   
   MSZ000-LAZ000-250900-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2227   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0128 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Northeast LA into central/southern MS   
      
   Concerning...Tornado Watch 639...640...   
      
   Valid 250728Z - 250900Z   
      
   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 639, 640 continues.   
      
   SUMMARY...Some tornado and wind-damage threat will spread   
   east-northeast with time overnight.   
      
   DISCUSSION...A large southwest to northwest oriented storm cluster   
   is ongoing early this morning from LA into central/northern MS. A   
   midlevel shortwave trough currently near the ArkLaTex region, and an   
   associated strong low-level jet, will sustain this convection   
   overnight as it moves east-northeastward through a moist and   
   modestly unstable environment. Strong deep-layer shear (generally   
   50-60 kt) will continue to sustain organized convection with a   
   threat of wind damage, while enlarged hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH of   
   greater than 300 m2/s2 per the KDGX VWP) will support some tornado   
   potential with any persistent supercell structures or line-embedded   
   circulations.=20   
      
   A tendency for the composite outflow to sag southeastward may   
   continue to temper the severe threat to some extent. However, the   
   strong low-level jet will aid in the northeastward expansion of   
   richer boundary-layer moisture and modest surface-based buoyancy   
   with time. A potentially severe line segment currently approaching   
   the LA/MS border will likely persist as it moves near and south of   
   the outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone. Farther north/east, marginal   
   supercells currently north of Jackson, MS (as of 0725 UTC) could   
   pose a tornado and isolated wind-damage threat, if they remain in   
   the effective warm sector. Some severe threat will eventually spread   
   east/northeast of WW 640, which could eventually necessitate local   
   watch expansion or new watch issuance.   
      
   ..Dean/Hart.. 11/25/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!5XbjeDxdGAEWZ-FN59AfDLwfkzqTnHfGeNbplM3PWplI0JdyyASYqP-IB0A5HyBgIOA56vkzN=   
   fuM50Np2s_OM6l3S90$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...   
      
   LAT...LON   31689188 32869066 33128953 32958908 32588908 32288919   
               31658959 31389031 31259175 31689188=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 4/0 19/10 88/0 90/0 93/1 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 128/187 129/14 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/700   
   SEEN-BY: 218/840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1 6 360 226/18 30 44 50 227/114   
   SEEN-BY: 229/110 206 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512   
   SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 200 342/200   
   SEEN-BY: 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 880/1 900/0 102 106 902/0 19   
   SEEN-BY: 902/26 904/0 13 905/0 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5019/40 5020/400   
   SEEN-BY: 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 341/66 902/26 229/426