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   ACUS01 KWNS 250548   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 250546   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1146 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST   
   MISSISSIPPI INTO EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated to scattered severe storms are likely across parts of the   
   Southeast/Deep South this morning into the early evening hours. A   
   couple tornadoes are possible in parts of eastern Mississippi and   
   Alabama.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weakening upper wave over   
   east TX/LA translating to the east/northeast with a more compact,   
   amplifying upper disturbance moving into the northern High Plains.   
   Further de-amplification of the southern wave is anticipated over   
   the next 24 hours as it lifts into the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. As   
   this occurs, a weak surface low (analyzed over the mid-MS Valley as   
   of 05 UTC) will gradually lift to the northeast with a trailing cold   
   front extending from the TN Valley to the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm   
   development is anticipated by mid-afternoon along this boundary   
   across portions of eastern MS, AL, and into the southern   
   Appalachians. While buoyancy will remain somewhat modest, strong   
   wind shear over the region will support the potential for strong to   
   severe thunderstorms.   
      
   ...Southeast...   
   Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing by 12 UTC across portions of   
   central MS and northwest AL as remnants from overnight convection   
   begin to weaken in tandem with the early-morning maximum in   
   inhibition. Some re-intensification of this activity is possible by   
   late morning across northeast MS/northern AL as diurnal heating   
   increases, but confidence in the coverage/intensity is uncertain.   
      
   30-40 knot south/southwesterly flow in the 1-2 km layer will   
   continue to advect seasonally warm/moist air northward into central   
   and northeast AL by mid-afternoon. This will allow for adequate   
   destabilization within the warm sector for thunderstorm development   
   as a weak cold front begins to advance from the west. The   
   combination of strong, along-boundary deep-layer wind shear and weak   
   forcing for ascent will favor a broken line of cells/clusters by   
   mid-afternoon. The strong low-level winds will support a damaging   
   wind threat with any strong thunderstorm, and favorable low-level   
   helicity (especially late morning through early afternoon) will   
   support a tornado threat with the more intense/isolated supercells.   
   Through late afternoon, low-level winds veering to the southwest may   
   modulate the tornado threat to some degree, but damaging winds and   
   isolated large hail will remain possible. In general, the overall   
   ensemble signal for intense convection is comparatively weaker   
   compared to previous days, suggesting that the severe threat may be   
   somewhat more limited. Nonetheless, Slight-risk probabilities were   
   maintained for portions of southeast MS through east-central AL   
   where strong/severe storms appear most likely.   
      
   ..Moore/Jewell.. 11/25/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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