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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1248   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1058 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   Areas affected...northern LA into southeastern AR and   
   central/northern MS   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 250356Z - 250810Z   
      
   Summary...Areas of flash flooding will remain possible from   
   northern LA into southeastern AR and central/northern MS over the   
   next few hours. Peak hourly rainfall values of 1 to 3 inches are   
   expected within axes of training.   
      
   Discussion...A broken squall line was observed through radar   
   imagery at 0330Z from southeastern AR into northern/western LA and   
   far eastern TX. This feature was located out ahead of an   
   approaching shortwave and embedded vorticity max which extended   
   from northeastern TX into southeastern OK, moving toward the ENE.   
   Low level convergence, ahead of the associated surface cold front   
   and along/north of the system's warm front, was helping to focus   
   the SW to NE oriented axis of thunderstorms which has had a   
   history of training and 1 to 3 inches of rain per hour since at   
   least 01Z. The lower MS Valley also resided beneath the diffluent   
   right entrance region of a 100 to 120+ kt jet max centered over   
   the central MO/IL border which was aiding lift within the moist   
   (1.5-1.7 inch PWs) and unstable (500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE) environment.   
      
   As the shortwave and embedded vorticity max continue to advance   
   downstream toward the ENE, The axis of thunderstorms will follow   
   suit, with areas of embedded training within the SW to NE oriented   
   mean steering flow. The environment will continue to support peak   
   hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches at times, which is below FFG   
   values for southern portions of this MPD, but at or above it for   
   AR into northern MS. Therefore, the flash flood threat is   
   considered possible and should be mainly confined to urban or   
   otherwise sensitive locations where 2 to 4 inches of rain could   
   fall in 3 hours or less time.   
      
   Otto   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!4a9nv8X4pl-iuXsYRf0vA3pX-uVyblhhJWRgGkOtkPsGQx8P7kA7L5qxKGPRBbJpJ4V2=   
   q0MyJho1Nw54PYvtCxe_CGI$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LCH...LZK...MEG...OHX...SHV...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   35088927 35088829 34968780 34368761 33768814=20   
               33018901 32329007 31849104 31289216 30859377=20   
               31139431 31709418 32009364 32549301 33409201=20   
               34709039=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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