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   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   737 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 01Z Tue Nov 25 2025 - 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF   
   THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...   
      
   ...01Z Update...   
      
   The primary changes to the ERO risk areas this evening were to trim   
   the west and northwestern portions of the risk areas in Texas and   
   Arkansas, as the steadiest, heaviest rains have ended in the   
   trimmed areas. Elsewhere, the ERO remains unchanged. A slow moving   
   front is drawing sufficient Gulf moisture northeastward from   
   eastern Texas into portions of the southern Tennessee Valley. Along   
   this corridor of moisture, prodigious lightning producing storms   
   are also peaking in intensity with rainfall rates topping 2 inches   
   per hour. In the areas where this heavy rain is falling, flash   
   flooding has been occurring. Fortunately storms reaching an   
   intensity capable of this intensity of rainfall have been quite   
   isolated among the larger complex of storms. The Slight Risk area   
   continues to highlight the area where enough rainfall has been   
   falling that should a storm move over those areas with heavier   
   rainfall rates, then resultant flash flooding is likely.   
      
   Slow moving storms associated with the southern end of the line   
   will likely impact the Houston metro later tonight. Much of the   
   CAMs guidance have suggested that by then the storms will be in a   
   progressive line, limiting the amount of time heavy rain is   
   occurring over the flood-sensitive metro.=20   
   On the other end of the Slight, storms with embedded moderate to=20   
   briefly heavy rainfall are also moving into northern Mississippi.=20   
   Guidance suggests moderate rain will continue over this area for   
   much of the night. This too could result in widely scattered   
   instances of flash flooding. Since by late tonight instability will   
   be waning, most of Mississippi other than the northwestern-most=20   
   counties remain in a Marginal Risk. Thus, it should be noted that=20   
   both these areas are in the higher end of the Marginal Risk threat.   
      
   Wegman   
      
   ...Previous Discussion...   
      
   The overall forecast philosophy remains on track for this update.   
   Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop from   
   southwest to northeast within an 850mb low-level jet axis extending   
   from near Austin, TX through the ArkLaTex. Some of the convection   
   will interact with left over low-level boundaries from this   
   morning's convection, further enhancing rainfall potential and   
   resulting in localized 2-4 inch daily totals. The greatest risk of   
   these enhanced rainfall totals will focus around northeast Texas   
   into northwest Louisiana and vicinity.   
      
   The overall convective scenario should translate eastward toward   
   the Lower Mississippi Valley through the overnight hours and become   
   increasingly displaced from surface-based buoyancy focused across   
   southeast Texas/southwest Louisiana. Flash flooding should remain   
   possible, but gradually decrease in coverage with eastward extent.   
      
   Risk areas across Oklahoma, northern/central Arkansas, and parts of   
   west-central Texas were trimmed as ongoing convective trends   
   suggest that any remaining flash flood threat has lessened for the   
   remainder of the forecast period.   
      
   Cook   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025 - 12Z Wed Nov 26 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF   
   THE SOUTHEAST, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...   
      
   20Z Update...   
   Overall, no large changes were made to the previous area. Both the   
   HREF and RRFS guidance indicate locally heavy amounts, with an   
   isolated threat for flash flooding, are possible in the region.   
   The 12Z HREFmean continues to highlight the southern Appalachians   
   with higher probabilities for amounts of 2-3 inches, whereas the   
   06Z RRFSmean suggests a broader threat that is centered farther   
   southwest from northwestern Georgia back through central Alabama.   
      
   Previous Discussion...   
   The low pressure system will continue advancing through the Gulf   
   states and into the Southeast/Carolinas. The latest guidance   
   continues to depict localized totals as high as 2-3" especially   
   near the higher terrain of the region. Should these occur over a   
   short enough period (or exceed 3"+ in areas farther south) than   
   isolated instances of flash flooding are possible. A Marginal Risk   
   remains in effect from eastern Mississippi to extreme southwest   
   Virginia and western North and South Carolina.   
      
   Pereira/Campbell   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Wed Nov 26 2025 - 12Z Thu Nov 27 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR WESTERN   
   WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...   
      
   20Z Update...   
   Made only minor adjustments to the previous outlook.   
      
   Previous Discussion...   
   An atmospheric river directed toward the Pacific Northwest will   
   advect copious moisture towards the terrain, with some 2 to 3 inch   
   rainfall totals likely. This will increase the threat for runoff   
   and localized flash flooding therefore a Marginal Risk is in   
   effect.   
      
   Pereira/Campbell   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9jdHcxju6aIuZuvEK1Tk_zUDnn5ZUUbvWZVzGm8RusX2=   
   8yBmKGNp6T4oBpwaKY0QbFRQCyIam2rplQnXlxf34gBpfxM$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9jdHcxju6aIuZuvEK1Tk_zUDnn5ZUUbvWZVzGm8RusX2=   
   8yBmKGNp6T4oBpwaKY0QbFRQCyIam2rplQnXlxf3g__TAhM$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9jdHcxju6aIuZuvEK1Tk_zUDnn5ZUUbvWZVzGm8RusX2=   
   8yBmKGNp6T4oBpwaKY0QbFRQCyIam2rplQnXlxf3k8cqCa0$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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