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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1247   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   459 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   Areas affected...east-central/northeast Texas, western Louisiana,   
   and southern Arkansas   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 242158Z - 250358Z   
      
   Summary...Areas of training thunderstorm continue to support 1-2.5   
   inch/hr rainfall rates at times.  These rain rates should support   
   at least isolated instances of flash flooding through the evening.   
      
   Discussion...Flash flood potential continues across the discussion   
   area.  This afternoon, several areas of scattered thunderstorms   
   (organized into clusters and small linear segments) have migrated   
   west to east across the discussion area.  Over the past hour, and   
   uptick in convective intensity has been noted across central Texas   
   along and east of the I-45 corridor.  An impressive 2.53 inch/hr   
   rain rates was measured at Athens, TX during that time.  Cells are   
   being influenced by 1) a stout mid-level shortwave trough via   
   water vapor that was advancing toward the region from west-central   
   Texas and 2) confluent low-level flow, which was maintaining 1.7   
   inch PW and 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE across the discussion area.  THe   
   storms were not congealed into a forward-propagating linear   
   segment, with localized axes of training continuing to support   
   heavier rainfall.  FFG thresholds continue to range in the 2-3.5   
   inch/hr range, suggesting that the bulk of the flash flood threat   
   will likely remain tied to urban and/or sensitive areas in the   
   short term.   
      
   Over time, ongoing convective activity will shift eastward through   
   the TX/LA border region (including Shreveport Metro), with spots   
   of 1-3 inch/hr rain rates continuing.  A cold front was making   
   slow progress to the east across central Texas, reducing stability   
   and ending the convective/flash flood threat from the west.  This   
   front will translate eastward, reaching the TX/LA border area near   
   Shreveport in the 04-05Z timeframe.  Flash flooding will be a   
   distinct possibility through at least that timeframe.   
      
   Cook   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!6A_9Czlk4N8uJvMpEAy71KjENzSoGcbjTJuBlDeDK8nVn3CE6d2LzSn7W1JziWcAQYhd=   
   dXd7ZpUi4kcGG5M4tApX0Mc$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LZK...SHV...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   33739364 33529223 32669183 31189212 30469375=20   
               30079619 30789702 32479634 33559493=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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