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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS11 KWNS 242147   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 242147=20   
   LAZ000-TXZ000-242315-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2224   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0347 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas into extreme western   
   Louisiana   
      
   Concerning...Tornado Watch 638...   
      
   Valid 242147Z - 242315Z   
      
   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 638 continues.   
      
   SUMMARY...Isolated tornadoes remain possible this afternoon and   
   evening.   
      
   DISCUSSION...A round of supercell structures, with a history of   
   producing a tornado, has since diminished, with storms percolating   
   in intensity along and ahead of a surface cold front. At the moment,   
   it is unclear if storms will remain weak or if an uptick in   
   intensity (with increased tornado potential) will occur over the   
   next few hours. Nonetheless, the warm sector remains buoyant to the   
   south of a warm front, characterized by 1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE driven   
   by 70s/upper 60s F surface temperatures/dewpoints beneath 6+ C/km   
   mid-level lapse rates. Furthermore, 20Z mesoanalysis shows 60+ kt   
   southwesterly 500 mb flow overspreading a 30-40 kt southerly   
   low-level jet, contributing to 50-70 kts of effective bulk shear and   
   sizeable elongated/curved hodographs with 200+ m2/s2 effective SRH.   
   As such, a conditional tornado threat persists if storms can   
   organize, especially near the warm front, where low-level shear is   
   maximized.   
      
   ..Squitieri.. 11/24/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!68RuDfVPp2b0aviZd1e40OEGp0t8f1q7StBvFnNPZVh8bZdLq3FdBkG3gFKR9_xY-yH6SuhDM=   
   _3dkE_lkov1lx3vIdA$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...   
      
   LAT...LON   30239665 31649605 31989571 32289498 32409440 32359391   
               32179361 31689345 31009361 30309399 30049448 29829509   
               29719548 29659584 29739613 30239665=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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