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   ACUS01 KWNS 241952   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 241951   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0151 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   Valid 242000Z - 251200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF   
   EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through the afternoon   
   into the overnight hours, from east Texas into central/southern   
   Mississippi.   
      
   ...20Z Update...   
   Only minor changes to general thunder and severe probabilities have   
   been made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook to reflect the latest   
   observations and guidance consensus. Storms have increased in   
   coverage and intensity along the cold front, and along a primary   
   low-level moisture confluence zone within the free warm sector.   
   Storms seem to be struggling in intensity at the moment, possibly   
   due to a sub-optimal vertical wind shear profile in place (please   
   see MCD 2223 for more details on short-term convective trends).   
   However, convection should persist to some degree along and ahead of   
   the cold front through the afternoon into the overnight hours as   
   upper support from an approaching mid-level trough overspreads the   
   Sabine/MS River Valleys. With adequate low-level moisture advection   
   continuing ahead of the cold front, supercells and line segments   
   capable of damaging gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will remain   
   possible through tonight, from eastern TX into central MS.   
      
   ..Squitieri.. 11/24/2025   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025/   
      
   ...East TX this afternoon to MS overnight...   
   A midlevel shortwave trough over KS/OK/TX this morning will progress   
   a bit north-of-east to the lower OH and TN Valleys by Tuesday   
   morning.  Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected in advance of   
   the de-amplifying midlevel trough, but there will be sufficient mass   
   response to support a modestly strong low-level jet (roughly 40 kt)   
   from northeast TX this afternoon into the Ark-La-Miss by early   
   Tuesday.  This low-level jet will correspond to the north edge of   
   the richer low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints of 66-70 F),   
   and MLCAPE generally 1000-2000 J/kg near and south of the warm   
   front.   
      
   Convective mode is likely to remain rather messy through tonight,   
   though cellular elements are expected given modest forcing for   
   ascent along the deeper baroclinic zone from northeast TX eastward   
   near the LA/AR border.  Warm sector supercell development is also   
   possible by early-mid afternoon from southeast into east TX (see MD   
   2222 for additional details), along a confluence zone (now from   
   VCT-CLL) and aided by cloud breaks where surface temperatures warm   
   into the 75-80 F range.  The combination of moderate buoyancy and   
   sufficiently long/curved hodographs will support the threat for a   
   few supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, occasional wind   
   damaging and isolated large hail.  The threat will spread  this   
   afternoon across east TX and then spread eastward overnight toward   
   MS.   
      
   $$   
      
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