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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   245 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Mon Nov 24 2025 - 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF   
   NORTHEAST TEXAS, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND INTO ADJACENT   
   PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, NORTHERN LOUISIANA, AND   
   NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...   
      
   ...16Z Outlook Update...   
      
   The overall forecast philosophy remains on track for this update.   
   Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop from   
   southwest to northeast within an 850mb low-level jet axis extending   
   from near Austin, TX through the ArkLaTex. Some of the convection   
   will interact with left over low-level boundaries from this   
   morning's convection, further enhancing rainfall potential and   
   resulting in localized 2-4 inch daily totals. The greatest risk of   
   these enhanced rainfall totals will focus around northeast Texas   
   into northwest Louisiana and vicinity.   
      
   The overall convective scenario should translate eastward toward   
   the Lower Mississippi Valley through the overnight hours and become   
   increasingly displaced from surface-based buoyancy focused across   
   southeast Texas/southwest Louisiana. Flash flooding should remain   
   possible, but gradually decrease in coverage with eastward extent.   
      
   Risk areas across Oklahoma, northern/central Arkansas, and parts of   
   west-central Texas were trimmed as ongoing convective trends   
   suggest that any remaining flash flood threat has lessened for the   
   remainder of the forecast period.   
      
   Cook   
      
   ...Previous Discussion...   
      
   A SW-NE axis of thunderstorms setup overnight allowing training   
   over central Texas. Storms are expected to linger over parts of   
   central Texas at the start of the D1 period while ramping up over   
   northeast Texas and adjacent areas as the upper trough/low   
   advances eastward. Localized accumulations of around 3-4" being   
   near or just above FFGs across northern portions of the Slight and   
   at or below FFGs across southern portions of the Slight. Guidance   
   continues to suggest the highest totals will focus near the   
   Arkansas and Louisiana border and over northeast Texas. A broad   
   Marginal Risk spans from central Texas to western portions of   
   Tennessee and northwest Alabama.   
      
   Campbell   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025 - 12Z Wed Nov 26 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF   
   THE SOUTHEAST, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...   
      
   20Z Update...   
   Overall, no large changes were made to the previous area. Both the   
   HREF and RRFS guidance indicate locally heavy amounts, with an=20   
   isolated threat for flash flooding, are possible in the region.=20   
   The 12Z HREFmean continues to highlight the southern Appalachians=20   
   with higher probabilities for amounts of 2-3 inches, whereas the=20   
   06Z RRFSmean suggests a broader threat that is centered farther=20   
   southwest from northwestern Georgia back through central Alabama.=20   
      
   Previous Discussion...   
   The low pressure system will continue advancing through the Gulf=20   
   states and into the Southeast/Carolinas. The latest guidance=20   
   continues to depict localized totals as high as 2-3" especially=20   
   near the higher terrain of the region. Should these occur over a=20   
   short enough period (or exceed 3"+ in areas farther south) than=20   
   isolated instances of flash flooding are possible. A Marginal Risk=20   
   remains in effect from eastern Mississippi to extreme southwest=20   
   Virginia and western North and South Carolina.   
      
   Pereira/Campbell   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Wed Nov 26 2025 - 12Z Thu Nov 27 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR WESTERN   
   WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...   
      
   20Z Update...   
   Made only minor adjustments to the previous outlook.   
      
   Previous Discussion...   
   An atmospheric river directed toward the Pacific Northwest will=20   
   advect copious moisture towards the terrain, with some 2 to 3 inch=20   
   rainfall totals likely. This will increase the threat for runoff=20   
   and localized flash flooding therefore a Marginal Risk is in=20   
   effect.   
      
   Pereira/Campbell   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_dxuHm_4CUBm6BFu2VR3tIzXR478pwBjHmCJ_6QEzCNB=   
   9WSBDEFh2IIK77pAXzGYvoeqtWWtC2CZAK8XZAPoI8vvba4$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_dxuHm_4CUBm6BFu2VR3tIzXR478pwBjHmCJ_6QEzCNB=   
   9WSBDEFh2IIK77pAXzGYvoeqtWWtC2CZAK8XZAPoNgmW4gI$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_dxuHm_4CUBm6BFu2VR3tIzXR478pwBjHmCJ_6QEzCNB=   
   9WSBDEFh2IIK77pAXzGYvoeqtWWtC2CZAK8XZAPoDrGK65s$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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