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   ACUS02 KWNS 241722   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 241721   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1121 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF AL AND   
   EASTERN MS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are likely across parts of the Southeast/Deep   
   South, mainly from Tuesday morning into early evening. A couple   
   tornadoes are possible in parts of eastern Mississippi and Alabama.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A leading shortwave impulse over the Lower OH and TN Valleys will   
   dampen as it moves quickly northeast, downstream of an amplifying   
   shortwave trough across the Upper Midwest. Surface cyclogenesis will   
   occur over the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes, aiding in   
   sharpening/acceleration of a trailing cold front on Tuesday night in   
   the Southeast.   
      
   ...Deep South...   
   A high shear-low CAPE environment should be present across   
   southern/central MS into western AL, where remnants of early-morning   
   supercells may yield a lingering tornado threat beyond 12Z.   
   Convection should generally weaken into midday, in the wake of the   
   leading shortwave impulse departing the TN Valley. Diurnal   
   destabilization should occur following early-day convection, ahead   
   of the initially slow-moving cold front. With upper 60s surface dew   
   points nosing north from the central Gulf Coast, even modest   
   diabatic heating will sustain moderate buoyancy.   
      
   Guidance is consistent with suggesting scattered convection   
   along/ahead of the outflow-modulated cold front during the   
   afternoon, despite otherwise nebulous large-scale ascent. Deep-layer   
   wind fields are expected to be subsiding from strong values early,   
   but likely remaining adequate for semi-discrete supercell   
   structures. Modest mid-level lapse rates and expected mode may   
   curtail greater than isolated severe hail/damaging wind threats.   
   Tornado potential will be dependent on timing of afternoon   
   convective development and the degree of low-level hodograph   
   curvature reduction. But there is sufficient signal to warrant a   
   corridor of level 2-SLGT for the risk of a couple tornadoes from   
   lingering storms in the mid-morning and afternoon to early evening   
   redevelopment. Overall severe threat should become marginal by late   
   evening/overnight, but may persist on a very isolated basis   
   east/southward in GA to the FL Panhandle.   
      
   ..Grams.. 11/24/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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