TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 166999.weather@1:2320/105 2d8c4f26   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   AWUS01 KWNH 241649   
   FFGMPD   
   TXZ000-242048-   
      
   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1246   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1149 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   Areas affected...portions of southeastern Texas, including Houston   
   Metropolitan   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 241648Z - 242048Z   
      
   Summary...A cluster of thunderstorms has developed just west of   
   Houston Metropolitan.  Areas of 1 inch/hr rates have been   
   estimated.  These rates should spread/develop east-northeastward   
   over the next 2-4 hours, possibly prompting excessive runoff   
   especially in urban areas.   
      
   Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have developed along a   
   pre-frontal confluence axis located west of Houston Metro over the   
   past 1-2 hours. These cells are exhibiting rapid intensification   
   as evidenced by robust lightning concentrations and cooling cloud   
   tops via satellite.  The storms are in an environment   
   characterized by 3500 J/kg SBCAPE and 1.6 inch PW values, both   
   supporting locally heavy rain.  Furthermore, the cells are in a   
   very weakly capped environment with subtle ascent aloft passing   
   over the area from weak mid-level waves ahead of a larger-scale   
   mid/upper trough over the Texas Panhandle.  Each of these features   
   along with strong vertical wind shear are supportive of convective   
   longevity and modest increases in convective coverage over the   
   next 2-4 hours.   
      
   Rain rates of 1-1.5 inch/hr were estimated in a couple spots   
   beneath the convection recently.  Additional convective   
   development and training should result in more areas of 1.5   
   inch/hr rain rates over time, with some of this activity reaching   
   perhaps northern sides of Houston Metro.  Additionally, the   
   presence of a warm front over the area may encourage instances of   
   right-moving cells -and- mergers, further enhancing local flash   
   flood potential.  Direct impacts to Houston Metro are still in   
   question currently, but cannot be ruled out as storms continue to   
   mature.  At least isolated instances of flash flooding are   
   possible in this regime.   
      
   Cook   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!5x69WgDP4V7GXF8YIMVSa-qvfy3sErd_9r8Jumve8fsd8Pa8UfZ2q8vJhSAFDJ5I4IVu=   
   rmSVFnLOGYYCFaicFHyltqc$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   31379478 31199388 30469384 29729427 29079610=20   
               28759708 30029731 30839687 31179619=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50   
   SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 201/0 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1   
   SEEN-BY: 221/6 360 226/18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 206 300 307 317   
   SEEN-BY: 229/400 426 428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003   
   SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364   
   SEEN-BY: 341/66 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426