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   ACUS01 KWNS 241624   
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   SPC AC 241623   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1023 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   Valid 241630Z - 251200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON   
   INTO TONIGHT FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MISSISSIPPI...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon into   
   the overnight hours from east Texas into central/southern   
   Mississippi.   
      
   ...East TX this afternoon to MS overnight...   
   A midlevel shortwave trough over KS/OK/TX this morning will progress   
   a bit north-of-east to the lower OH and TN Valleys by Tuesday   
   morning.  Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected in advance of   
   the de-amplifying midlevel trough, but there will be sufficient mass   
   response to support a modestly strong low-level jet (roughly 40 kt)   
   from northeast TX this afternoon into the Ark-La-Miss by early   
   Tuesday.  This low-level jet will correspond to the north edge of   
   the richer low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints of 66-70 F),   
   and MLCAPE generally 1000-2000 J/kg near and south of the warm   
   front.   
      
   Convective mode is likely to remain rather messy through tonight,   
   though cellular elements are expected given modest forcing for   
   ascent along the deeper baroclinic zone from northeast TX eastward   
   near the LA/AR border.  Warm sector supercell development is also   
   possible by early-mid afternoon from southeast into east TX (see MD   
   2222 for additional details), along a confluence zone (now from   
   VCT-CLL) and aided by cloud breaks where surface temperatures warm   
   into the 75-80 F range.  The combination of moderate buoyancy and   
   sufficiently long/curved hodographs will support the threat for a   
   few supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, occasional wind   
   damaging and isolated large hail.  The threat will spread  this   
   afternoon across east TX and then spread eastward overnight toward   
   MS.   
      
   ..Thompson/Wendt.. 11/24/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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