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   TXZ000-241745-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2222   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1020 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   Areas affected...portions of southeast into and east-central Texas   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20   
      
   Valid 241620Z - 241745Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of   
   southeast into east-central TX. All severe hazards are possible,   
   including at least isolated tornadoes.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity   
   within a low-level confluence band within the free warm sector. The   
   16Z mesoanalysis shows the approach of a mid-level trough over far   
   west TX, which should provide increasing upper-support for   
   thunderstorm development through early afternoon. Meanwhile,   
   adequate insolation is contributing to boundary layer   
   destabilization ahead of an approaching surface cold front. Surface   
   temperatures are already warming into the 70s F, with upper   
   60s/lower 70s F dewpoints gradually spreading north-northeast across   
   central into eastern TX. Currently, MLCAPE west of the Houston metro   
   is reaching the 1500-2500 J/kg range within the moist axis, as 7+   
   C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreads the region. Deep-layer and   
   low-level shear appears strongest closer to the nose of the better   
   moisture plume (i.e. the warm front), and this is expected to remain   
   the case through the afternoon.   
      
   The current thinking is that ongoing warm sector storms may continue   
   to fluctuate in intensity with boundary layer destabilization,   
   assuming they do not outpace the better moisture. Large hail and   
   damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger storms. The best   
   chance for tornado development will be with the more discrete storms   
   that can parallel the warm-frontal regime. It is unclear precisely   
   when storms will peak in severity. However, given the increase in   
   convective trends, a Tornado Watch issuance may eventually be   
   needed.   
      
   ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 11/24/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!68rafcFgjyeUM3YBJKtKN94adV6Jzdc5MCzwbsP4_Rqgbi2BzZ3rrusq7CDmJgnoWRBHOV4vA=   
   sxusGI8H-URPIzkqRE$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...   
      
   LAT...LON   29719760 30999708 31519598 31629507 31559422 31349373   
               31109358 30769366 30319382 29959434 29529515 29309583   
               29139644 29109694 29189720 29719760=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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