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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1245   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1109 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   Areas affected...portions of northeast Texas, northwestern   
   Louisiana   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 241608Z - 242208Z   
      
   Summary...Areas of training/repeating thunderstorms should result   
   in local 2-4 inch rainfall totals through 22Z/4p Central.  Flash   
   flooding is possible - especially where these heavy rainfall   
   totals can occur in sensitive and/or urban areas.   
      
   Discussion...A complex convective scenario is ongoing across   
   portions of Texas and Louisiana this morning.  A mature linear   
   segment (extending from near Hot Springs, AR south-southwestward   
   to near Longview, TX) was forward propagating eastward while   
   producing areas of 0.5-1.0 inch/hr rain rates.  An outflow   
   boundary from this activity extends westward from Longview to near   
   Waco, where another well-organized linear complex was moving   
   eastward and also producing 0.5-1.5 inch/hr rain rates.   
      
   Flash flood potential will reside between these two linear   
   complexes over the next 4-6 hours.  The east-west oriented outflow   
   will interact favorably with enhanced low-level flow (30+ kt at   
   850 oriented perpendicular to the boundary), resulting in   
   repeating rounds of rainfall.  Furthermore, heating along and   
   south of a synoptic warm front across east Texas (from near Waco   
   to near Lake Charles) will also aid in destabilizing to support   
   strengthening convection throughout the discussion area.  The   
   overall scenario supports areas of 2-4 inch rainfall totals.   
      
   Fortunately, hourly FFG thresholds across most of the discussion   
   area are in the 3+ inch range where the heaviest rainfall is   
   expected.  These thresholds may not be exceeded on a widespread   
   basis - although this depends somewhat on specific convective   
   evolution also.  Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding   
   are expected - particularly where the greatest rainfall can occur   
   over low-lying and/or urban areas.=20=20   
      
   Cook   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!9fUSUFL2ROiQxVrsYtVsEBgqdyxDf-bIOIvk-ma4iocAmW5lq1cRQobaTs_JYoM_o2p3=   
   fcRDhqLMp_0tY5wFKqjPZb4$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...LZK...SHV...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   33439408 33429237 32409221 31929238 31359297=20   
               31079432 30539631 30799728 31949726 32589596=20   
               32979514=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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