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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1012 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Mon Nov 24 2025 - 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF   
   NORTHEAST TEXAS, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND INTO ADJACENT   
   PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, NORTHERN LOUISIANA, AND   
   NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...   
      
   A SW-NE axis of thunderstorms setup overnight allowing training   
   over central Texas. Storms are expected to linger over parts of   
   central Texas at the start of the D1 period while ramping up over   
   northeast Texas and adjacent areas as the upper trough/low   
   advances eastward. Localized accumulations of around 3-4" being   
   near or just above FFGs across northern portions of the Slight and   
   at or below FFGs across southern portions of the Slight. Guidance   
   continues to suggest the highest totals will focus near the   
   Arkansas and Louisiana border and over northeast Texas. A broad   
   Marginal Risk spans from central Texas to western portions of   
   Tennessee and northwest Alabama.   
      
   Campbell   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Wed Nov 26 2025 - 12Z Thu Nov 27 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF   
   THE SOUTHEAST, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...   
      
   The low pressure system will continue advancing through the Gulf   
   states and into the Southeast/Carolinas. The latest guidance   
   continues to depict localized totals as high as 2-3" especially   
   near the higher terrain of the region. Should these occur over a   
   short enough period (or exceed 3"+ in areas farther south) than   
   isolated instances of flash flooding are possible. A Marginal Risk   
   remains in effect from eastern Mississippi to extreme southwest   
   Virginia and western North and South Carolina.   
      
   Campbell   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Wed Nov 26 2025 - 12Z Thu Nov 27 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR WESTERN   
   WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...   
      
   An atmospheric river directed toward the Pacific Northwest will   
   advect copious moisture towards the terrain, with some 2 to 3 inch   
   rainfall totals likely. This will increase the threat for runoff   
   and localized flash flooding therefore a Marginal Risk is in   
   effect.   
      
   Campbell   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9fbyXVKjcrwL3Iw0UFsxOS3Ngj2fnds23Nf0qo5LYEqI=   
   HpIn9pJ7_d8jA1AqKDe8aiTKZZ3hy1nlKMv0XBx8p3PC9DA$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9fbyXVKjcrwL3Iw0UFsxOS3Ngj2fnds23Nf0qo5LYEqI=   
   HpIn9pJ7_d8jA1AqKDe8aiTKZZ3hy1nlKMv0XBx8x79alus$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9fbyXVKjcrwL3Iw0UFsxOS3Ngj2fnds23Nf0qo5LYEqI=   
   HpIn9pJ7_d8jA1AqKDe8aiTKZZ3hy1nlKMv0XBx8Ep5Zo8M$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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