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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1244   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   513 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   Areas affected...central TX into southeastern OK/southwestern AR   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely   
      
   Valid 241012Z - 241515Z   
      
   Summary...Flash flooding is likely to continue for portions of   
   central TX into southeastern OK/southwestern AR, at least on a   
   localized basis, through the morning commute (through 15Z/9 AM   
   CST). Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches will remain likely within   
   areas of training and at least isolated/urban flash flooding will   
   be likely in a couple of areas.   
      
   Discussion...Radar imagery from 10Z showed a SW to NE axis of   
   heavy rain that extended from near San Angelo to Graham,   
   containing MRMS-derived hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches and has   
   had a history of observed 15 minute rates between 0.5 and 1.0   
   inches. The axis of thunderstorms was located along the leading   
   edge of 30-40 kt of southerly 925-850 mb winds, which veered and   
   weakened to the west, forming a SW to NE axis of convergence that   
   has largely coincided with the line of thunderstorms over central   
   to northern TX since 06Z. With the exception of the far southern   
   edge of the line, the thunderstorms were mostly elevated above a   
   stable layer north of a warm front that draped NW to SE across   
   central TX to the Upper TX Coast. The environment contained ML/MU   
   CAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg and precipitable water values of 1.3   
   to 1.5 inches per 09Z SPC mesoanalysis data and these values are   
   expected to continue to be in place as the system translates east   
   to northeast.   
      
   Short term forecasts from the RAP show the low level convergence   
   axis translating eastward through 15Z, oriented parallel to   
   southwesterly mean steering flow, which will continue to support   
   areas of training over the next 3-5 hours. North of the Red River,   
   instability is expected to be weaker (<1000 J/kg) which may limit   
   rainfall intensities, but lift will be augmented by the   
   right-entrance region of a 90-110 kt upper level jet max located   
   on the eastern side of a upper level closed low/trough to the   
   west.   
      
   Therefore, while not everyone will see 1 to 2 inches of rain in an   
   hour, SW to NE axes of heavy rain will continue to impact portions   
   of central TX into southeastern OK/southwestern AR through 9 A.M.   
   local time, which will could impact the morning rush, especially   
   if overlap of high rain rates occurs with urban locations, such as   
   the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex within the next 1 to 3 hours.   
   Additional rainfall for many should be 1 to 2 inches but peak   
   values through 15Z of 2 to 3 inches will likely occur.   
      
   Otto   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!4ZFTNzgVNwIfsPso7FHQYtRooV-OEmC5q63V7fbKprZpyFzny24Osy-GunOLEUcodKte=   
   o_H4CPuu11FoxTF_I1Qa12E$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   35019440 34799388 34309345 33309398 32169588=20   
               31299741 30899864 30829950 31350015 32169926=20   
               33519754 34869529=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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