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   ACUS48 KWNS 240906   
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   SPC AC 240905   
      
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0305 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   Valid 271200Z - 021200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   Thunderstorm activity should be minimal Thursday and Friday as high   
   pressure ushers in a cool, dry airmass across much of the eastern   
   CONUS. By late Friday night, return flow across Texas may lead to   
   some weak destabilization and thunderstorm chances.   
      
   Severe thunderstorms are possible Day6/Saturday to Day8/Monday   
   across the southern Plains as the warm sector expands across Texas   
   and mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. Evolution   
   of this mid-level trough remains uncertain. The GFS, AIGFS, and   
   EC-AIFS all suggest a slower evolution of the trough with a deeper   
   closed low across the Southwest. However, the operational ECMWF is   
   more progressive and would actually suggest an end to severe weather   
   potential by Monday with offshore flow across the Gulf Coast once   
   again. At this time, the consensus pattern for a slower, more   
   amplified trough seems most likely, especially given that previous   
   12Z and 00Z ECMWF model runs preferred this solution as well.   
      
   Severe thunderstorms will be possible with this preferred pattern,   
   but uncertainty in the evolution of the mid-level trough and timing   
   preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.   
      
   ..Bentley.. 11/24/2025   
      
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