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   ACUS02 KWNS 240656   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 240654   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1254 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible across the Deep South into the   
   Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and Tuesday night.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A weak mid-level shortwave trough across the Tennessee Valley will   
   dampen through the period as it advances into the western Atlantic   
   after 00Z. A trough across the northern Plains will amplify through   
   the period as it advances into the Upper Midwest and develops a   
   closed upper low. A surface low will develop near Wisconsin/Lake   
   Michigan and deepen through the day and into Tuesday night. As it   
   deepens, a surface cold front will sharpen and accelerate east from   
   the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley.   
      
   ...Deep South...   
   A strong low-level jet will extend from northern MS/AL to southern   
   Ohio Tuesday morning and will quickly move northeast through the   
   day. This will result in weaker, more veered flow across the warm   
   sector during the afternoon. Rising heights in the wake of the   
   morning mid-level shortwave trough and weak convergence along the   
   front may mitigate severe storm potential during much of the day,   
   despite weak to moderate instability and moderate shear across much   
   of the uncapped warm sector. However, scattered storms, some which   
   could be strong, are expected along and ahead of the frontal zone   
   during the afternoon and early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be   
   the primary threat, but some isolated large hail may also occur   
   across portions of MS/AL where greater instability is forecast.   
      
   Overall, stronger forcing amid falling heights aloft and greater   
   convergence along the cold front, is anticipated Tuesday night.   
   However, weaker instability should mitigate the overall severe   
   weather threat. A few stronger storms are possible after 06Z across   
   the FL Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia where   
   upper 60s dewpoints off the Gulf should be sufficient for moderate   
   instability, even during the early morning hours. However, even if a   
   few supercells can form during this period, severe potential may be   
   somewhat limited given only modest mid-level lapse rates and weak   
   low-level flow.   
      
   ..Bentley.. 11/24/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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