TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 166980.weather@1:2320/105 2d8bc111   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 240644   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 240643=20   
   TXZ000-240915-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2221   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1243 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   Areas affected...West-central and Southwest Texas   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20   
      
   Valid 240643Z - 240915Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...An isolated large hail threat may continue into the   
   overnight period across parts of west-central and southwest Texas.   
   Weather watch issuance will be possible.   
      
   DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows several small   
   thunderstorm clusters extending from north-central Texas   
   southwestward toward the Big Bend. The strongest thunderstorms are   
   located along a surface trough in southwest Texas along an axis of   
   moisture and instability. Within this airmass, the RAP shows MLCAPE   
   in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Storm coverage is expected to   
   continue as low-level flow and large-scale ascent both gradually   
   increase. The latest WSR-88D VWP at San Angelo has 0-6 km shear near   
   55 knots with some directional shear in the low to mid-levels. This   
   environment may support rotation within the strongest storms, and   
   isolated supercells with large hail will be possible. RAP forecast   
   soundings at San Angelo have poor mid-level lapse rates suggesting   
   any hail threat should be marginal overnight.   
      
   ..Broyles/Hart.. 11/24/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!-L7RzTpn_Dav39-6NnT8-A803PxjNWHASb8jv4Vhmr82BmUhk5FPt6jUhgVFRWxwdXIwAk6fr=   
   Uc7kOswAqYkAu6tLqM$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...   
      
   LAT...LON   32100067 31330170 30840225 30410219 30320181 30310060   
               30579960 30939896 31539840 31919822 32249828 32409848   
               32559912 32499978 32100067=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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