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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1243   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1251 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   Areas affected...lower Pecos Valley into north-central TX   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely   
      
   Valid 240550Z - 241015Z   
      
   Summary...An axis of SW to NE thunderstorms is expected to train,   
   likely resulting in areas of flash flooding from the lower Pecos   
   Valley into portions of north-central TX through 10Z. Hourly   
   rainfall of 1-2 inches should be common, but isolated hourly   
   totals in excess of 2 inches cannot be ruled out.   
      
   Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 0530Z across TX showed the   
   recent development of thunderstorms across the lower Pecos River   
   Valley from SW to NE, crossing I-10 a couple of miles west of   
   where US-190 meets I-10. Additional thunderstorms extended   
   northeastward across I-20 between Abilene and Ranger. MLCAPE was   
   500 to 1500+ J/kg via 05Z SPC mesoanalysis data though most of the   
   region was capped. The eastward motion of a mid to upper level   
   closed low/trough to the west has allowed sufficient lift to   
   overcome a capping inversion noted on the 00Z DRT sounding,   
   although the capping inversion is likely weaker to the north of   
   DRT. The storms were located out ahead of a weak Pacific cold   
   front analyzed over western TX at 05Z, along an axis of   
   convergence represented the leading edge of low level moisture   
   transport marked by 30-40 kt of flow per area VAD wind data in the   
   925-850 mb layer. Some right-entrance region ascent is also likely   
   present south of a 100 kt jet max located on the eastern side of   
   the closed low/trough.   
      
   Lift ahead of the eastward moving closed low/trough will continue   
   to support the expansion of numerous thunderstorms over portions   
   of west-central to north-central TX through 09Z. Thunderstorm   
   alignment is expected from SW to NE, along the similarly oriented   
   low level convergence axis, with mean steering flow paralleling   
   the axis of convergence, supportive of training. Slow overall   
   movement is especially likely where the leading edge of low level   
   transport meets the approaching zone of lift from the west, closer   
   to the Rio Grande, where eastward movement of the axis of forcing   
   is expected to be slowest. However, coverage of thunderstorms with   
   southward extent is a bit uncertain. The environment supports   
   hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches but isolated hourly totals over 2   
   inches should be attainable where thunderstorm axes are slower to   
   translate east. Areas of flash flooding are likely to result,   
   although coverage may be somewhat limited across the MPD threat   
   area through 10Z.   
      
   Otto   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!--J0Cgwx68s_3fUkCaer5oFLIJNr1rjgaRVVx80_87jephrSQ-YTTO7MFCqPzFly5cC0=   
   qx9_h9ZLW7rl1Rkm4ORZB5U$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...OUN...SJT...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   33599849 33179739 32419736 31389870 30340081=20   
               30000244 30570297 31730151=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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