TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 166977.weather@1:2320/105 2d8bb102   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 240535   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 240534   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1134 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025   
      
   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF   
   EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTENDING ACROSS LOUISIANA TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon into   
   the overnight hours over much of eastern Texas, with more isolated   
   activity into Mississippi. A few brief tornadoes may occur from   
   eastern Texas into Louisiana, along with areas of damaging gusts and   
   sporadic large hail.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A positive-tilt upper trough will move from the central and southern   
   Plains today toward the MS Valley overnight, losing amplitude with   
   time. Upper ridging will occur over the East during this time as an   
   upper trough exits the Northeast.   
      
   At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Mid Atlantic   
   during the day, with southerly winds from the western Gulf of   
   America into TX. A plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will extend   
   as far as North TX by 00Z as a cold front approaches the I-35   
   corridor. A warm front will extend roughly from the Red River into   
   southern AR at that time, with a continued northward advection of   
   moisture overnight across MS.   
      
   ...Eastern TX toward the ArkLaMiss...   
   Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing from   
   North TX into eastern OK and western AR through midday, with   
   southerly 40 kt winds at 850 mb aiding moisture transport and lift   
   north of the warm front. Given cool profiles aloft and ample   
   deep-layer effective shear, some of this activity could produce hail   
   at times.   
      
   To the south, a weak cold front will progress across TX, as boundary   
   layer dewpoints increase. A capping inversion will exist near 700 mb   
   initially, but by early afternoon, the deepening moist layer as well   
   as cooling aloft will reduce inhibition near the front, and, by late   
   afternoon, even ahead of the cold front within the moist axis.   
      
   Scattered storms are likely to form along the trailing outflow/cold   
   front, and perhaps just east of the cold front primarily after 21Z.   
   Sufficient cross-boundary winds aloft as well as veering winds with   
   height will support scattered supercells. Some of these cells may   
   produce a tornado prior to eventual merging of storms along the   
   front. The most intense cells may also produce large hail, as   
   mid/upper lapse rates will become steep.   
      
   At least an isolated severe threat may persist as far east as MS   
   overnight, as the warm front continues to move north, with veering   
   wind profiles with height and generally moist conditions supporting   
   a conditional tornado risk. However, the upper trough will continue   
   to weaken and lift north, reducing confidence in storm coverage.   
      
   ..Jewell/Moore.. 11/24/2025   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50   
   SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 201/0 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1   
   SEEN-BY: 221/6 360 226/18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 206 300 307 317   
   SEEN-BY: 229/400 426 428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003   
   SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364   
   SEEN-BY: 341/66 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426