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   ACUS11 KWNS 240235   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 240235=20   
   TXZ000-240430-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2220   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0835 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Northwest Texas to the Edwards Plateau   
      
   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637...   
      
   Valid 240235Z - 240430Z   
      
   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637   
   continues.   
      
   SUMMARY...Sporadic severe hail and wind remains possible across   
   portions of northwest Texas southward into parts of the Edwards   
   Plateau through the late evening hours.   
      
   DISCUSSION...A pair of strong thunderstorms continues to progress   
   northeastward along and south of the I-20 corridor in west-central   
   Texas. These cells have a history of producing sub-severe hail, but   
   have shown some degree of intensification in lightning trends and   
   cloud-top temperatures over the past 30-45 minutes. Based on recent   
   surface obs and analyses, these cells are likely becoming elevated   
   as they move into a more cool/stable low-level environment. The   
   downstream 00 UTC FWD sounding shows adequate MUCAPE and effective   
   bulk shear to maintain strong, to potentially severe, convection. As   
   such, the relatively greatest near-term severe threat will reside   
   downstream of the ongoing cells where sporadic instances of severe   
   hail, and perhaps damaging winds, will be possible.=20   
      
   Back to the south/southwest, isolated convective cells have   
   struggled to intensify, likely owing to lingering capping within the   
   warm sector as sampled by the 00 UTC DRT sounding. Some   
   lifting/erosion of this warm layer is expected as lift associated   
   with the right-entrance region of an upper-level jet overspreads the   
   Edwards Plateau later tonight. Recent CAM guidance suggests that a   
   second round of thunderstorms is possible between 03-07 UTC, though   
   it remains unclear how intense/widespread this convection will be   
   given that 00 UTC HRRR/RRFS solutions have not accurately captured   
   the warmth/strength of the capping layer. Nonetheless, given   
   adequate deep-layer shear an isolated severe threat may still   
   materialize later tonight.=20   
      
   For both regions, the overall severe threat is expected to remain   
   sufficiently isolated to preclude downstream watch issuance of WW   
   637.   
      
   ..Moore.. 11/24/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!8AJJLPGnu4CIHp6gRXKx3IiVQEvqedst7m27kOkUkgr9MUitAMNtC3pTHE5NKwrSKcUTo_4MJ=   
   1GniXaf8Di01cy3uXw$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...   
      
   LAT...LON   31010266 31610134 31790097 32090067 32900012 33359981   
               33609951 33669909 33629887 33429872 32879852 32439859   
               32139875 30880006 30560057 30400095 30260163 30220215   
               30220246 30290278 30390295 30630304 30850296 31010266=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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