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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   725 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 01Z Mon Nov 24 2025 - 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF   
   CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...   
      
   Showers and thunderstorms have fired up ahead of highly modified   
   Pacific front/pseudo dryline which are along a broken line and   
   moving into/across portions the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau.   
   Its southern edge is generally delimited by the 6C isotherm at 700   
   hPa. Other longer duration, elevated showers and thunderstorms   
   stretch northeast towards the Red River of the South. This=20   
   precipitation pattern makes up the tail end of a warm conveyor=20   
   belt around a deep layer cyclone in southeast CO. Precipitable=20   
   water values are rising near and ahead of this activity, forecast=20   
   to rise to 1.5-1.75" with time. MU CAPE is 2000+ J/kg in spots, and   
   effective bulk shear is rather high, 40-70 kts regionally. This=20   
   should lead to increased forward propagation of the convective band   
   across south-central and central TX with time. Even so, hourly=20   
   amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" are probably through 12z as=20   
   mesocyclones form along the band, which is expected to solidify=20   
   with time as atmospheric moisture increases.   
      
   Rainfall is forecast to become particularly heavy across portions=20   
   of south-central and central TX after 03z, which is generally=20   
   agreed upon by the 18z HREF and 12z REFS guidance. Based on those=20   
   pieces of guidance, along with radar reflectivity trends, there was   
   a southeast shift in the risk areas when compared to continuity.=20   
   Flash flood guidance regionally has been depressed by the heavy=20   
   rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday, with values in the 2-3"/3 hour=20   
   time frame common, which should be exceeded on a scattered basis=20   
   within the Slight Risk area overnight.   
      
   Roth   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025 - 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF   
   NORTH TEXAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO ADJACENT   
   PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, NORTHERN LOUISIANA, AND   
   NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...   
      
   ...20z Update...   
      
   Organized convection will be ongoing across North Texas and into   
   southeastern Oklahoma and the Ark-La-Tex region Mon AM, moving   
   east across Arkansas and into the Mid-South during the day. The   
   best potential for heavy rainfall will center around North Texas   
   initially before spreading eastward. Guidance has consolidated on a   
   more southern solution relative to prior days, and this includes   
   the latest 12z hi-res model suite (which now extends through the   
   full period). The rather broad Slight Risk is now relatively low   
   confidence, given expected localized totals of around 3-4" being   
   near or just above FFGs across northern portions of the SLGT and at   
   or below FFGs across southern portions of the SLGT (though still   
   maintained at SLGT here given the highest potential for localized   
   5" exist to the south where instability is greatest...despite these   
   probabilities being less than 20% per 12z HREF exceedance probs).   
      
   Churchill/Campbell   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025 - 12Z Wed Nov 26 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF   
   THE SOUTHEAST, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...   
      
   ...20z Update...   
      
   Little change to the inherited outlook, as guidance remains in   
   relatively good agreement concerning localized totals as high as   
   2-3". Should these occur over a short enough period (or exceed 3"+   
   in areas farther south) than isolated instances of flash flooding   
   are possible.   
      
   Churchill   
      
      
   ...Previous Discussion...   
      
   The low pressure system is expected to continue advancing eastward   
   then will track northeast while weakening on Tuesday. This will   
   shift the focus of convection to south-central/Southeast during   
   this period. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall was maintained   
   from the previous Day 4 outlook. Areal averages of 1 to 3 inches   
   will be common.   
      
   Campbell   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!67kwuf6BrMIQKqzue2tfiFMhx9ZGux5cTzs0t6QNRfay=   
   B2nxwESo_AFGqtlzOMg34Ae2IbAj5fsQ3AZ3N6ZgBI71X3U$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!67kwuf6BrMIQKqzue2tfiFMhx9ZGux5cTzs0t6QNRfay=   
   B2nxwESo_AFGqtlzOMg34Ae2IbAj5fsQ3AZ3N6ZgUz05_2Q$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!67kwuf6BrMIQKqzue2tfiFMhx9ZGux5cTzs0t6QNRfay=   
   B2nxwESo_AFGqtlzOMg34Ae2IbAj5fsQ3AZ3N6Zg4nXNl4M$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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