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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1242   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   653 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Edwards Plateau/Concho Valley in TX   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 232352Z - 240552Z   
      
   Summary...A band of thunderstorms is trying to consolidate and is   
   expected to continue to slowly lengthen with time.  Hourly rain   
   amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" are possible through 06z.   
      
   Discussion...A broken band of thunderstorms stretches from near   
   Fort Stockton northeast towards Big Spring TX within the tail end   
   of the warm conveyor belt of a deep layer low centered in the   
   vicinity of southeast CO.  Precipitable water values are up to   
   0.9-1.2" per recent GPS data.  MU/ML CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg exists   
   in the vicinity of the band's tail, with the 6C 700 hPa isotherm   
   appearing to act as its southern limit.  Effective bulk shear is   
   significant, 50-70 kts, which has led to mesocyclone formation.=20   
   Right-moving cells appear to be causing some eastward shift with   
   time.  Occasional backbuilding to near/slightly south of I-10 has   
   been noted at times.   
      
   RAP guidance shows an uptick in moisture and low-level inflow from   
   the Gulf and existing convection over the next several hours,   
   which should act to solidify and lengthen the band somewhat, aid   
   precipitation efficiency, and causing the polar warm front to slow   
   its northeast advance from the Pecos River valley.  Mesocyclones   
   along the existing, solidifying band are expected to cause cell   
   training as they hold up portions of the convective band to the   
   east-northeast, which could lead to hourly amounts to 2" and local   
   totals to 4" as cells move just right of the mean 850-400 hPa flow   
   in a general east-northeast direction.  The combination of a   
   broadening cold pool and slowly veering 850 hPa flow associated   
   with an impinging front/pseudo dryline leads to increased forward   
   progression of the band to the east to east-southeast.  Portions   
   of this region saw heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday, which   
   has lowered 3 hourly flash flood guidance values to 2-3", which   
   should be achievable in isolated to widely scattered spots.  The   
   12z REFS and 18z HREF were advised for the area outlined.  Flash   
   flooding is considered possible through 06z/midnight CST.   
      
   Roth   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!_zyP1sIM09MCIGlmT6X-1_ya4hUXy4M0OqKMFtaUfk4iqjVZGnYfxlcUIV9mjo_rBgr8=   
   7uVzWLSO13ttNTijlx2EvK4$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...SJT...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   32390111 32270029 31450004 30250073 30050201=20   
               30210274 30770303 31560210=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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