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   ACUS11 KWNS 232331   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 232330=20   
   TXZ000-240130-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2219   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0530 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Portions of the Permian Basin and the Edwards   
   Plateau   
      
   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637...   
      
   Valid 232330Z - 240130Z   
      
   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637   
   continues.   
      
   SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorms remain probable in the coming   
   hours across portions of the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau where the   
   convective environment remains very favorable for organized   
   convection.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KMAF shows a broken line of   
   thunderstorms between the I-20 and I-10 corridors west of the San   
   Angelo, TX region. While most cells remain fairly weak, a leading   
   supercell has shown periodic intensification and a persistent,   
   albeit weak, mid-level mesocyclone. Despite the meager intensity   
   thus far, these cells are beginning to move into the axis of better   
   low-level moisture where MLCAPE is regionally maximized (between   
   1000-1500 J/kg). Regional VWPs continue to sample elongated   
   hodographs featuring 0-6 km BWD values on the order of 50-60 knots.   
   As such, the regionally best convective environment remains   
   immediately downstream of ongoing cells, which may support an uptick   
   in convective intensity in the coming hours. Additionally, new   
   updraft development is noted in IR imagery on the southwestern flank   
   of the broken band, hinting that an increase in thunderstorm   
   coverage is probable. Recent CAM solutions support this idea and   
   suggest thunderstorm coverage may be maximized in the coming hours.   
      
   ..Moore.. 11/23/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!7Mor-NaUYpVuWr-1KhbUXmgkSapc5WflBOuDqGWqxixiZedPDDsguHRWW9Z1m6d1skr_Qh5P0=   
   ZLH1U1Jd1WP_1phGhs$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...   
      
   LAT...LON   29870237 30050267 30310288 30630303 30900301 31170284   
               32090178 32290156 32370112 32340062 32240020 31979993   
               31499984 31119989 30850004 30200066 29930102 29750137   
               29730168 29760203 29870237=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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