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   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0200 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025   
      
   Valid 232000Z - 241200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND   
   EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   A few severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally   
   severe gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of   
   west Texas.   
      
   ...20Z Update...   
   Both the Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly   
   northwestward in the TX South Plains. Here, continued diurnal   
   heating amid middle 50s dewpoints is yielding sufficient   
   surface-based buoyancy for any left-mover supercells that may evolve   
   (posing a risk of severe hail). Additionally, a significant-hail   
   area was added over the western part of the Slight Risk. Given the   
   expectation for discrete storms in this area, a long/mostly straight   
   hodograph and around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE should support hail to around   
   2 inches in diameter with any longer-lived supercells. Finally, the   
   5-percent wind probabilities were expanded eastward. Despite   
   increasing boundary-layer static stability, gradual upscale growth   
   and a focused/eastward-translating low-level jet should allow for   
   embedded severe gusts within the line into the early morning hours.   
   For details on the near-term severe risk, see MCD #2218.   
      
   ..Weinman.. 11/23/2025   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025/   
      
   ...West TX...   
   Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over AZ,   
   with a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms preceding it   
   across central/eastern NM. This low is forecast to continue   
   northeastward throughout the day as a belt of strong mid-level flow   
   pivots through its southern and eastern periphery across the   
   southern High Plains and into the southern/central Plains. Low-level   
   moisture will continue to advect northwestward ahead of this low and   
   associated jet streak and model consensus brings upper 50s dewpoints   
   into the Permian Basin by this evening. This should result in a   
   relatively confined region of surface-based buoyancy across the   
   Permian Basin, which will combined with large-scale ascent and   
   strong shear to support supercells. Primary threat will be large   
   hail, although the anticipated development of surface-based buoyancy   
   does indicate a low-probability threat for strong winds and/or a   
   tornado.   
      
   Low-level stability will increase quickly with eastward extent, as a   
   result of both nocturnal cooling and generally cooler surface   
   temperatures throughout the day. Even so, enough elevated buoyancy   
   is anticipated for continued strong to occasionally severe storms   
   throughout much of the evening and overnight, particularly in the   
   03Z-06Z time frame across southwest TX. Hail is the primary risk   
   with these storms.   
      
   $$   
      
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