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   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0115 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025   
      
   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DEEP   
   SOUTH...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible across the Deep South on Tuesday   
   and Tuesday night.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   Leading shortwave impulses over the Lower OH and TN Valleys will   
   further dampen, downstream of an amplifying shortwave trough over   
   the Upper Midwest. This latter feature will induce pronounced   
   surface cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes. Trailing cold front will   
   sharpen/accelerate southeastward Tuesday night in the Southeast.   
      
   ...Deep South...   
   A strong low-level jet over the OH to TN Valleys at 12Z Tuesday will   
   shift quickly northeast through the day. This will yield decreasing   
   speeds and more veered profiles by afternoon in the warm sector   
   ahead of the cold front. With convergence along the boundary likely   
   remaining weak through most of the day, large-scale ascent for a   
   greater than isolated severe threat appears nebulous.   
      
   A plume of moderate buoyancy should linger across LA/southern MS,   
   potentially extending into parts of AL by afternoon, and hold at   
   weak farther northeast. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for   
   some supercell potential, but the subsiding flow fields with respect   
   to the diurnal heating cycle casts uncertainty on how   
   sustained/productive storms may be. Instability will diminish after   
   sunset, but a marginal severe threat could linger near the AL/FL/GA   
   border area with nocturnal convection along the accelerating front.   
      
   ..Grams.. 11/23/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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