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   ACUS11 KWNS 231914   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 231914=20   
   TXZ000-232215-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2218   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0114 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025   
      
   Areas affected...parts of the Texas South Plains into Pecos Valley   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20   
      
   Valid 231914Z - 232215Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...The initiation of thunderstorms, including one or two   
   evolving supercells posing a risk for large hail, and perhaps a   
   tornado, increasingly probable through 2-4 PM CST.   
      
   DISCUSSION...As large-scale mid/upper troughing continues to slowly   
   shift north-northeastward into/through the Four Corners region, an   
   initial embedded short wave perturbation is already pivoting   
   northeastward into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains vicinity.=20   
   Near the southern periphery of the mid-level cooling/forcing for   
   ascent associated with this feature, appreciable boundary-layer   
   destabilization is well underway, aided by continuing moist   
   southerly low-level return flow and boundary-layer heating and   
   mixing.   
      
   Models suggest that a dryline will continue becoming better defined   
   over the next couple of hours, across the Texas Big Bend through New   
   Mexico/Texas state border vicinity, north-northwest of Midland.=20   
   Along and to the east of this feature, convectively unstable   
   thermodynamic profiles are evolving, with a still moistening   
   boundary layer forecast to also become characterized by CAPE on the   
   order of 1000-1500 J/kg.  At the same time, a 60-70 kt 500 mb jet   
   streak is overspreading the region, contributing to strong   
   deep-layer shear.   
      
   Convection-allowing model output and other guidance suggest that the   
   initiation of at least isolated thunderstorms will become   
   increasingly probable through the 20-22z time frame, centered   
   near/north of Midland.  Although at least some weakening of   
   southerly low-level flow may yield increasingly modest to weak   
   low-level hodographs, the evolution of a supercell or two posing a   
   risk for severe hail appears possible, and a tornado may not be   
   entirely out of the question into early evening.   
      
   ..Kerr/Mosier.. 11/23/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!_2Q4wncCu98lrw7L9Oil7LeGc5Qx2Yn96VIEN6pZX6Cp_bJEH3q-Gb8Xx3GlzypXRfOZyx-C2=   
   u1ff2afAniJLl1K8bU$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...   
      
   LAT...LON   32120283 33530277 33500205 32190160 30960189 31030254   
               31410299 32120283=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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