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   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1127 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025   
      
   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX TO THE   
   ARK-LA-MISS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from Monday   
   mid-afternoon into Monday night across east Texas into the   
   Ark-La-Miss. A few tornadoes along with large hail and damaging   
   winds are anticipated.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a positive-tilt trough   
   over the central to southern High Plains will move east-northeast   
   towards the Lower OH and TN Valleys through early Tuesday. These   
   impulses will dampen Monday night downstream of a shortwave trough   
   digging from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Plains.   
   Weak surface cyclone near the KS/OK border may decay as it tracks   
   into the Ozarks. A warm front will advance north from south-central   
   TX and the central Gulf Coast.   
      
   ...Central TX to MS...   
   Primary change this outlook has been to shift/expand severe   
   probabilities east/south based on latest guidance trends. Confidence   
   remains too low for highlighting a mesoscale corridor of strong   
   tornado potential with a level 3-ENH risk.   
      
   Elevated storms will be ongoing at 12Z Monday from parts of central   
   TX to western AR. Marginally severe hail is possible with these   
   storms through midday. Downstream of these storms, the surface warm   
   front will accelerate northward across east TX. Amid rich   
   boundary-layer moisture south of the front, a plume of moderate   
   buoyancy will become pervasive from south into most of east TX.   
      
   Primary severe potential should commence around mid-afternoon amid   
   weak mid-level height falls and minimal inhibition. Activity should   
   intensify/increase along the outflow from early-day convection and   
   in confluence bands immediately downstream. Strong southwesterly   
   deep-layer shear will support supercell structures, but convective   
   mode will likely remain quite messy along the progressive outflow   
   that nearly parallels the shear vector. The more semi-discrete cells   
   just ahead and trailing southward will have the best potential to   
   produce large hail. The tornado threat will be influenced by the   
   degree of discrete convection that forms eastward in the warm sector   
   through early evening where low-level hodograph curvature remains   
   large. Nocturnal tornado and some wind threat will persist into the   
   late evening/overnight period as rich low-level moisture is   
   maintained across the Sabine Valley and expands east through MS.   
      
   ..Grams.. 11/23/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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