TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 166961.weather@1:2320/105 2d8af801   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 231626   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 231624   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1024 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025   
      
   Valid 231630Z - 241200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND   
   EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX....   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   A few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible this   
   afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas.   
      
   ...West TX...   
   Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over AZ,   
   with a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms preceding it   
   across central/eastern NM. This low is forecast to continue   
   northeastward throughout the day as a belt of strong mid-level flow   
   pivots through its southern and eastern periphery across the   
   southern High Plains and into the southern/central Plains. Low-level   
   moisture will continue to advect northwestward ahead of this low and   
   associated jet streak and model consensus brings upper 50s dewpoints   
   into the Permian Basin by this evening. This should result in a   
   relatively confined region of surface-based buoyancy across the   
   Permian Basin, which will combined with large-scale ascent and   
   strong shear to support supercells. Primary threat will be large   
   hail, although the anticipated development of surface-based buoyancy   
   does indicate a low-probability threat for strong winds and/or a   
   tornado.   
      
   Low-level stability will increase quickly with eastward extent, as a   
   result of both nocturnal cooling and generally cooler surface   
   temperatures throughout the day. Even so, enough elevated buoyancy   
   is anticipated for continued strong to occasionally severe storms   
   throughout much of the evening and overnight, particularly in the   
   03Z-06Z time frame across southwest TX. Hail is the primary risk   
   with these storms.   
      
   ..Mosier/Wendt.. 11/23/2025   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 4/0 19/10 88/0 90/0 93/1 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 128/187 129/14 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/700   
   SEEN-BY: 218/840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1 6 360 226/18 30 44 50 227/114   
   SEEN-BY: 229/110 206 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512   
   SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 200 342/200   
   SEEN-BY: 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 880/1 900/0 102 106 902/0 19   
   SEEN-BY: 902/26 904/0 13 905/0 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5019/40 5020/400   
   SEEN-BY: 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 341/66 902/26 229/426