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   FOUS30 KWBC 231559   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1059 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Sun Nov 23 2025 - 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF   
   CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...   
      
   ...16z Update...   
      
   No major changes for the update, maintaining an inherited SLGT Risk   
   and adjusting the contours a bit (mainly shrinking the northern   
   extent) based on the latest 12z CAMs. Highest confidence for SLGT   
   impacts exists across the northern TX Hill Country into the the Big   
   Country, where FFGs (1-3 hr) are as low as 1.5-2.0". Convection is   
   expected to proliferate rather late in the period, around and after   
   06z for the bulk of heavy precipitation in the main area of concern   
   (including San Angelo). Farther northeast in the SLGT, both rates   
   and resulting totals look lower with less confidence overall. That   
   said, still maintained the SLGT for areas with FFGs (3-6 hour) of=20   
   2.5-3.0" given moderate to high (40-60%) 40-km HREF 2" exceedance=20   
   probs and low (up to 15%) 3" exceedance probs. Outside the SLGT   
   risk, also expanded the MRGL southeast to the coast in the vicinity   
   of Corpus Christi, due to both observational trends this morning   
   and resulting trends in the hi-res CAMs suggesting low-end   
   potential for 3-5" exceedance (though FFGs are much higher).=20   
      
   Churchill   
      
      
   ...Previous Discussion...   
      
   Showers and thunderstorms will be firing up ahead of and along the   
   east-west stationary/warm frontal boundary draped across southern   
   Texas and again with the approach of the cold front from western   
   Texas by late afternoon/evening. Parts of the Dallas/Fort Worth   
   metro could realize rain accumulations of at least 3 inches,   
   however much of the Consensus keeps the majority of the higher QPF   
   focused north of the Hill Country and for less populated   
   locations.=20   
      
   While this less populated region of Central/ Northwest Texas   
   within the south-central portion of the Slight Risk has   
   indications of 5"+ potential (per 40-km HREF 5" exceedance probs of   
   ~15%), this signal is being driven seemingly entirely by one   
   member (the FV3, which is generally one of the less reliable   
   members) with the bulk of the CAM guidance in good agreement   
   indicating 2-4" totals. The bulk of the expected QPF will occur in   
   the last 6 hour segment of the period, this may or may not play a   
   limiting factor in the need of a local Moderate Risk.=20   
      
   Campbell   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025 - 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF   
   ARKANSAS AND NORTH TEXAS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN   
   OKLAHOMA, NORTHERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST   
   MISSISSIPPI...   
      
   Organized convection will be ongoing across North Texas and into   
   southeastern Oklahoma and the Ark-La-Tex region, moving east   
   across Arkansas and into the Mid-South during the day. The best   
   potential for heavy rainfall will center around North Texas   
   initially before spreading eastward. Guidance maintains a split in   
   location of the 3+ inch exceedance from a relatively   
   hydrologically sensitive region from southwest Oklahoma into   
   northwest/north-central Arkansas (mainly driven by the GFS/GEFS)   
   and the other camp indicating higher odds for 3" exceedance farther   
   south into the Ark-La-Tex and southern Arkansas. There may need to   
   be considerations for a future targeted Moderate Risk upgrade,   
   though for this to occur more guidance would most likely need to   
   shift towards the northern solution (or consolidate towards the   
   southern solution while also getting wetter, as FFGs indicate much   
   less sensitive soils that would require a broader area of 3"+   
   before meeting Moderate coverage criteria).   
      
   Campbell/Churchill   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025 - 12Z Wed Nov 26 2025   
      
   The low pressure system is expected to continue advancing eastward   
   then will track northeast while weakening on Tuesday. This will   
   shift the focus of convection to south-central/Southeast during   
   this period. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall was maintained   
   from the previous Day 4 outlook. Areal averages of 1 to 3 inches   
   will be common.   
      
   Campbell   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9HHnAqmZu4DIdpqfpIp3jiUr543nw9rhpAIXhDXx-x_x=   
   RoKedfNokP_t8v4Qv2SpLoDwmVLAa7_cw6e4XtZsTWu4K8E$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9HHnAqmZu4DIdpqfpIp3jiUr543nw9rhpAIXhDXx-x_x=   
   RoKedfNokP_t8v4Qv2SpLoDwmVLAa7_cw6e4XtZsamcpMFs$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9HHnAqmZu4DIdpqfpIp3jiUr543nw9rhpAIXhDXx-x_x=   
   RoKedfNokP_t8v4Qv2SpLoDwmVLAa7_cw6e4XtZsDk-Wq4A$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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