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   ACUS03 KWNS 230828   
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   SPC AC 230827   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0227 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025   
      
   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE SOUTHEAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible across portions   
   of the Southeast on Tuesday.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Tuesday   
   with ridging across the West. A cold front will sharpen near the   
   Mississippi River and cross the Appalachians by the end of the   
   period.   
      
   ...Southeast...   
   Mid 60s dewpoints will stream northward ahead of a cold front across   
   the Southeast on Tuesday. This will result in moderate   
   destabilization within a zone of moderate to strong deep-layer   
   shear. Minimal inhibition is expected along the front by   
   mid-afternoon which should support isolated to scattered storm   
   development. A strong low-level jet, initially across MS/TN/AL   
   during the morning, will move quickly east and is forecast over the   
   Mid-Atlantic by 00Z. If this occurs, low-level shear will not be   
   that strong along the frontal zone Tuesday afternoon/evening.   
   Therefore, isolated large hail will likely be the primary severe   
   weather threat. Storm intensity is expected to lessen by late   
   evening due to the cooling boundary layer ahead of the cold front.   
      
   ...South Texas...   
   The southwestern edge of the surface cold front will stall across   
   South Texas Tuesday afternoon/evening. The environment south of this   
   front will feature moderate instability and shear. Upper forcing may   
   be somewhat nebulous, but convergence along the front may be   
   sufficient for isolated to widely scattered storms late Tuesday   
   afternoon into the evening. If storms develop, large hail will   
   likely be the primary threat.   
      
   ..Bentley.. 11/23/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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