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   FOUS30 KWBC 230823   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   323 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Sun Nov 23 2025 - 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF=20   
   CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...   
      
   Showers and thunderstorms will be firing up ahead of and along the   
   east-west stationary/warm frontal boundary draped across southern=20   
   Texas and again with the approach of the cold front from western=20   
   Texas by late afternoon/evening. Parts of the Dallas/Fort Worth   
   metro could realize rain accumulations of at least 3 inches,   
   however much of the Consensus keeps the majority of the higher QPF   
   focused north of the Hill Country and for less populated=20   
   locations.=20   
      
   While this less populated region of Central/ Northwest Texas=20   
   within the south-central portion of the Slight Risk has=20   
   indications of 5"+ potential (per 40-km HREF 5" exceedance probs of   
   ~15%), this signal is being driven seemingly entirely by one=20   
   member (the FV3, which is generally one of the less reliable=20   
   members) with the bulk of the CAM guidance in good agreement=20   
   indicating 2-4" totals. The bulk of the expected QPF will occur in   
   the last 6 hour segment of the period, this may or may not play a   
   limiting factor in the need of a local Moderate Risk.   
      
   Campbell   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025 - 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF   
   ARKANSAS AND NORTH TEXAS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN   
   OKLAHOMA, NORTHERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST=20   
   MISSISSIPPI...   
      
   Organized convection will be ongoing across North Texas and into=20   
   southeastern Oklahoma and the Ark-La-Tex region, moving east=20   
   across Arkansas and into the Mid-South during the day. The best=20   
   potential for heavy rainfall will center around North Texas=20   
   initially before spreading eastward. Guidance maintains a split in   
   location of the 3+ inch exceedance from a relatively=20   
   hydrologically sensitive region from southwest Oklama into=20   
   northwest/north-central Arkansas (mainly driven by the GFS/GEFS)=20   
   and the other camp indicating higher odds for 3" exceedance farther   
   south into the Ark-La-Tex and southern Arkansas. There may need to   
   be considerations for a future targeted Moderate Risk upgrade,=20   
   though for this to occur more guidance would most likely need to=20   
   shift towards the northern solution (or consolidate towards the=20   
   southern solution while also getting wetter, as FFGs indicate much=20   
   less sensitive soils that would require a broader area of 3"+=20   
   before meeting Moderate coverage criteria).   
      
   Campbell/Churchill   
      
      
   Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025 - 12Z Wed Nov 26 2025   
      
   The low pressure system is expected to continue advancing eastward   
   then will track northeast while weakening on Tuesday. This will   
   shift the focus of convection to south-central/Southeast during=20   
   this period. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall was maintained   
   from the previous Day 4 outlook. Areal averages of 1 to 3 inches   
   will be common.   
      
   Campbell   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5BFprpxCiK1-v1scRYMkOCt8ujEHLb5EU2qnR8bOKi3Q=   
   yBDLvdM7nIb5uGi0ouUCq3E-kDeC61C6oRDZI3EelnJYwaY$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5BFprpxCiK1-v1scRYMkOCt8ujEHLb5EU2qnR8bOKi3Q=   
   yBDLvdM7nIb5uGi0ouUCq3E-kDeC61C6oRDZI3EeJsP-9-k$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5BFprpxCiK1-v1scRYMkOCt8ujEHLb5EU2qnR8bOKi3Q=   
   yBDLvdM7nIb5uGi0ouUCq3E-kDeC61C6oRDZI3EeiyilnVQ$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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