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   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS02 KWNS 230654   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 230652   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1252 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025   
      
   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TEXAS TO   
   FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from later Monday   
   afternoon into Monday night across east Texas towards the   
   Ark-La-Miss. A few tornadoes along with large hail and damaging   
   winds are anticipated.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the central/southern   
   states on Monday with a second mid-level trough advancing from the   
   Northwest to the northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will   
   dominate much of the eastern CONUS with broad low pressure across   
   the Plains and Upper Midwest. A warm front near the Gulf Coast   
   Monday morning will lift north through the day.   
      
   ...East Texas to southern Arkansas...   
   Elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the   
   period from north-central Texas to southern Arkansas to the north of   
   a warm front. Isolated large hail is possible with these storms, but   
   a more widespread threat is not expected during the morning. The   
   warm front will advect northward quickly through the day and lead to   
   moderate destabilization across the warm sector. A messy storm mode   
   is expected along the warm front for much of the day with some   
   marginal severe threat. The greatest severe weather threat should   
   begin by mid-afternoon as height falls overspread the warm sector   
   and slight mid-level cooling results in an uncapped warm sector.   
   This should result in scattered supercell development within the   
   open warm-sector by late afternoon. A strengthening low-level jet   
   (40-45 knots) is expected to overspread the warm sector during this   
   same timeframe. This may result in a brief window during the late   
   afternoon to early evening where a few tornadoes (perhaps strong)   
   could occur.   
      
   A nocturnal wind/tornado threat may persist into the late   
   evening/overnight period as rich low-level moisture will help to   
   maintain an unstable boundary layer into the overnight period where   
   cyclonically curved low-level hodographs will persist.   
      
   ..Bentley.. 11/23/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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