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   ACUS01 KWNS 230536   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 230534   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1134 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025   
      
   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF WESTERN   
   INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated hail is possible beginning this afternoon across parts of   
   west to north-central Texas.   
      
   ...Synopsis and Discussion...   
   An upper low will pivot from AZ into CO today, with a midlevel speed   
   max moving into the southern High Plains. Cooling aloft will persist   
   across the region throughout the period, leading to steepening lapse   
   rates aloft.   
      
   At the surface, high pressure will maintain relatively cool surface   
   temperatures over the Plains and MS Valley, though 50s F dewpoints   
   will develop northward into western TX, and near 60 F dewpoints into   
   central TX by 12Z Monday.   
      
   As the upper trough emerges into the plains, large-scale ascent will   
   move out of NM and into TX and western OK. While the surface air   
   mass will be cool most areas, elevated instability should be   
   substantial due to a southerly low-level jet with strong theta-e   
   advection. Forecast soundings suggest perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE will   
   be possible, along with favorable effective shear over 40 kt. As   
   such, elevated convection should strengthen from eastern NM into   
   western TX, with the greatest severe hail potential over TX where   
   instability will be strongest. Isolated large hail seems likely   
   after about 18Z.   
      
   Otherwise, there is a conditional threat of an isolated,   
   surface-based supercell over far western TX in the Pecos/Fort   
   Stockton area, where a narrow zone of SBCAPE may develop due to   
   stronger heating. However, it is uncertain if any storms will form   
   along the weak boundary.   
      
   ..Jewell/Halbert.. 11/23/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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