TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 166944.weather@1:2320/105 2d8a1d42   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 230053   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 230052   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0652 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025   
      
   Valid 230100Z - 231200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered thunderstorms are expected mainly over parts of Arizona   
   and into New Mexico tonight. Severe weather is not forecast,   
   although small hail cannot be ruled out.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening ahead of an upper low   
   moving across northern Baja CA, affecting much of southern into   
   eastern AZ. Area soundings and objective analysis indicate a few   
   hundred J/kg MUCAPE is present, though primarily elevated in nature.   
   All this is occurring within a deep southerly flow regime, with   
   moderate deep layer shear. Any embedded cellular activity may   
   produce small hail given cold profiles aloft.   
      
   As cooling aloft spreads further into NM overnight, additional rain   
   and elevated thunderstorms will develop over the area. Forecast   
   soundings indicate favorable deep-layer shear will persist, with   
   midlevel moistening above an initially dry boundary layer. Again,   
   minimal/small hail will be possible given cold air aloft and   
   favorable shear for cellular storm mode.   
      
   ..Jewell.. 11/23/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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