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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1241   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   607 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025   
      
   Areas affected...portions of central and southeast AZ   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 222259Z - 230459Z   
      
   SUMMARY...Repeating and brief training of cells could result in   
   localized flash flooding across far eastern KY into WV and far   
   southern OH over the next few hours. Additional rainfall of 1-2   
   inches will be possible through 01Z, falling atop 1-2 inches of   
   rain which fell over the past 12 hours.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery and cooling cloud tops on GOES   
   East infrared imagery has shown an increase in rainfall intensity   
   across eastern KY over the past 2 hours, attributed to increasing   
   instability. Mostly clear skies located south of an outflow   
   boundary (located from south of SME, east-northeastward into   
   south-central WV between CRW and BKW) have allowed MLCAPE to   
   increase into the 500 to 1000+ J/kg range over southeastern KY as   
   roughly 30 kt of southwesterly 850 mb flow overruns the boundary.   
   Average cell motions have been fast with ~40 kt from the WSW,   
   limiting rainfall over any given location, but that rainfall has   
   been intense with 0.3 to 0.5 inches in 15 minutes observed.   
      
   A flash flood concern may expand eastward into WV through the   
   early evening as instability increases into the southern half of   
   WV, through the continued advection of low level moisture and at   
   least brief additional heating under clearing skies in southern   
   WV. Some backing of low level flow is forecast by the RAP and as   
   moist/unstable air continues to overrun the rain-cooled boundary,   
   additional storms are expected to form upstream in KY and advance   
   downstream into WV. There will likely be some repeating cells and   
   perhaps some brief training although uncertainty remains on the   
   degree of training into the evening. Given 1 to 2 inches of rain   
   which impacted western and central WV over the past 12 hours, an   
   inch or two of additional rainfall through 01Z may result in some   
   localized flash flooding atop sensitive grounds.   
      
   Otto   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!7t0SwD1cDQnVIZMQFVCK0VNmTmtrm9FjFvl4QTMcv2akeLdM5pIq9MnzgXiYy9DDoUdR=   
   8TJcSa0aciWXjO4Mxbq4g9k$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   34911210 34811085 33170939 31640956 31201086=20   
               32061186 34001212=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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