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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1241   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   559 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025   
      
   Areas affected...portions of central and southeast AZ   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 222258Z - 230458Z   
      
   Summary...Convection continues to grow in coverage across portions   
   of central and southeast AZ.  Hourly rain amounts up to 1" with   
   local amounts to 2" could lead to isolated to widely scattered   
   issues in arroyos/dry washes, burn scars, and box canyons.   
      
   Discussion...Infrared satellite imagery shows cooling cloud tops   
   in association with showers and thunderstorms across central and   
   southeast AZ within a region of 700 hPa confluence ahead of a   
   progressive deep layer low, with some recent uptick in coverage.=20   
   A first pixels of 0.5" an hour amounts were indicated recently   
   from the Phoenix and Tucson AZ radars in association with their   
   rainfall.  Pockets of 500+ J/kg of MU CAPE exist across   
   west-central and southeast AZ per SPC mesoanalyses, with   
   instability increasing due to cooling aloft and some degree of   
   daytime heating/sunshine, particularly across southeast AZ.=20   
   Effective bulk shear of 30-50 kts exists here, which is leading to   
   an environment with both organized and ordinary convective cells,   
   with the organized activity edging east of due north while the   
   less organized storms move just west of due north.  Precipitable   
   water values of 0.5-1" lie here.  The atmosphere is cool, with   
   1000-500 hPa thickness values of 5550-5600 meters.  When combined   
   with the available moisture, the column is approaching saturation.   
      
   The mesoscale guidance implies increasing convective coverage and   
   an increasing incidence of 0.5"+ an hour amounts over the next   
   several hours, with the 12z REFS and 18z HREF guidance suggesting   
   the heaviest rainfall in the 01-05z time frame.  This could be due   
   to cell training, occasional mesocyclone formation, or cell   
   mergers between more and less organized convective activity.  As   
   the upper level system continues marching northeast, winds should   
   veer somewhat which should allow convection to shift somewhat to   
   the east with time, with activity shifting increasingly into   
   mountainous areas.  With hourly amounts to 1" and local totals to   
   2" possible, the incidence of impactful heavy rain is expected to   
   be isolated to widely scattered, mainly within arroyos/dry washes,   
   box canyons, and any area burn scars.   
      
   Roth   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!_11Dt4vgOR_QWohFX9tvKqdE6LGVpOCutmRvWnF-mQw0JNZV4L9ax5MtPUIq6Oi9tax_=   
   f7aVUm8MLuTaLbjJuyltsFM$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   34911210 34811085 33170939 31640956 31201086=20   
               32061186 34001212=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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