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   ACUS01 KWNS 221948   
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   SPC AC 221946   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0146 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025   
      
   Valid 222000Z - 231200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the Southwest,   
   mainly from late in the day into the overnight. Isolated   
   thunderstorms are also possible from the Texas Coast across the   
   Southeast States. Severe thunderstorm potential appears low.   
      
   ...20Z Update...   
   The previous forecast thinking remains the same, and no changes were   
   warranted with this update. See the previous discussion below.   
      
   ..Weinman.. 11/22/2025   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025/   
      
   ...South TX/TX Coast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...   
   Recent surface analysis places a low just off the northern   
   Mid-Atlantic coast. A cold front extends west-southwestward from   
   this low across central VA and middle TN to another low just east of   
   MEM. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low   
   across northern MS, central LA, and the TX Coastal Plain. This cold   
   front is forecast to push eastward/southeastward throughout the day,   
   and isolated thunderstorms are anticipated within this broad warm   
   sector that stretches from the TX coast through much of the   
   Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Poor lapse rates and corresponding   
   limited buoyancy should keep updrafts weak and transient throughout   
   much of this region, limiting the severe potential. The only   
   exception is across south TX, where considerable low-level moisture   
   (i.e. dewpoints in the 70s) is in place, resulting in greater   
   buoyancy this afternoon. Even so, this region will be displaced well   
   south and west of the stronger mid-level flow, with weak shear   
   likely limiting updraft organization and persistence and tempering   
   the overall severe potential.   
      
   ...Southwest...   
   Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low just off the   
   northern Baja California coast this morning. This low is forecast to   
   progress gradually eastward today, with strong mid-level flow   
   spreading from the base of this low eastward/northeastward across   
   the Southwest. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are anticipated   
   ahead of this upper low, spreading from AZ this afternoon and   
   evening into NM overnight. In general, limited buoyancy should keep   
   overall thunderstorm strength low, despite strengthen deep-layer   
   vertical shear. The only exception is across southeast AZ, where   
   very strong vertical shear could overlap modest buoyancy for a few   
   hours this evening. Meridional orientation to the shear will favor   
   line segments and storm interactions, which should limit updraft   
   organization and the overall severe potential. That being said, a   
   few stronger storms with small, sub-severe hail and gusty winds are   
   possible. The overall severe potential is currently forecast to   
   remain too isolated to include any 5% probabilities.   
      
   $$   
      
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