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   ACUS03 KWNS 221913   
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   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0112 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025   
      
   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX TO FAR   
   SOUTHERN AR...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from later Monday   
   afternoon into Monday night across east Texas towards the   
   Ark-La-Miss. A few tornadoes along with large hail and damaging   
   winds are anticipated.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A shortwave trough over the central to southern High Plains will   
   move east, dampening Monday night in response to an upstream wave   
   digging from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Great Plains.   
   While the leading surface low will remain weak, pronounced   
   upper-level diffluence and persistent low-level warm theta-e   
   advection will support extensive convection across the South-Central   
   States through the period.   
      
   ...Central TX to the Ark-La-Miss...   
   A swath of elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday from   
   central TX northeastward, likely north of a gradually advancing   
   surface warm front. This boundary should accelerate north-northeast   
   with diurnal heating, yielding expansion of surface-based   
   instability across much of east TX by afternoon. While   
   low-probability severe hail is possible early, primary severe   
   potential should await peak heating along/ahead of the trailing   
   early-day convective swath. Elongated hodographs, amid 500-mb   
   southwesterlies in excess of 50 kts, will favor regenerative   
   supercells. These should be semi-discrete with southwest extent and   
   embedded within an increasingly messy cluster mode northeastward.   
      
   Large hail and some tornado threat should tend to be favored across   
   east TX during the late afternoon and evening, before low-level   
   winds subside and become more veered Monday night from west to east.   
   Nocturnal tornado and some damaging wind potential may persist   
   across the Sabine Valley towards the Ark-La-Miss, where enlarged   
   low-level hodographs coincide with the northeast flank of the   
   surface-based instability plume.   
      
   ..Grams.. 11/22/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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