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   ACUS02 KWNS 221703   
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   SPC AC 221701   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1101 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025   
      
   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TX   
   TRANS-PECOS TO NORTH TX...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe hail is possible from Sunday late afternoon into   
   Sunday night across parts of west to north-central Texas.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A positive-tilt shortwave trough will progress from the Southwest   
   into the central/southern High Plains through early Monday. This   
   will induce a weak surface wave over eastern CO, displaced well   
   north of a front that is currently along the Upper TX Coast to south   
   TX. This boundary should remain quasi-stationary into Sunday   
   afternoon before gradually advancing north on Sunday night over   
   south-central TX.   
      
   ...TX Trans-Pecos to north TX...   
   A confined plume of surface-based destabilization should develop   
   into the TX Trans-Pecos by late afternoon, with otherwise elevated   
   buoyancy across western to central TX. Severe potential should   
   commence towards late afternoon with initial cells that may be   
   sustained along the eastern periphery of the surface-based   
   instability corridor before becoming elevated downstream. Within a   
   persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime, regenerative   
   elevated convection is expected through Monday morning. Mid-level   
   lapse rates appear modest, but adequate low-level moisture should be   
   present amid strong effective bulk shear to pose an isolated severe   
   hail risk. A few supercells might occur early, with a predominately   
   messy cluster mode by Sunday night. This setup could warrant a   
   mesoscale corridor of greater hail probabilities in the Permian   
   Basin vicinity, with lower confidence in the overnight extent of   
   severe potential towards central and north TX.   
      
   ..Grams.. 11/22/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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