TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 166930.weather@1:2320/105 2d89a7c4   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 221632   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 221630   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1030 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025   
      
   Valid 221630Z - 231200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the Southwest,   
   mainly from late in the day into the overnight. Isolated   
   thunderstorms are also possible from the Texas Coast across the   
   Southeast States. Severe thunderstorm potential appears low.   
      
   ...South TX/TX Coast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...   
   Recent surface analysis places a low just off the northern   
   Mid-Atlantic coast. A cold front extends west-southwestward from   
   this low across central VA and middle TN to another low just east of   
   MEM. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low   
   across northern MS, central LA, and the TX Coastal Plain. This cold   
   front is forecast to push eastward/southeastward throughout the day,   
   and isolated thunderstorms are anticipated within this broad warm   
   sector that stretches from the TX coast through much of the   
   Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Poor lapse rates and corresponding   
   limited buoyancy should keep updrafts weak and transient throughout   
   much of this region, limiting the severe potential. The only   
   exception is across south TX, where considerable low-level moisture   
   (i.e. dewpoints in the 70s) is in place, resulting in greater   
   buoyancy this afternoon. Even so, this region will be displaced well   
   south and west of the stronger mid-level flow, with weak shear   
   likely limiting updraft organization and persistence and tempering   
   the overall severe potential.   
      
   ...Southwest...   
   Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low just off the   
   northern Baja California coast this morning. This low is forecast to   
   progress gradually eastward today, with strong mid-level flow   
   spreading from the base of this low eastward/northeastward across   
   the Southwest. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are anticipated   
   ahead of this upper low, spreading from AZ this afternoon and   
   evening into NM overnight. In general, limited buoyancy should keep   
   overall thunderstorm strength low, despite strengthen deep-layer   
   vertical shear. The only exception is across southeast AZ, where   
   very strong vertical shear could overlap modest buoyancy for a few   
   hours this evening. Meridional orientation to the shear will favor   
   line segments and storm interactions, which should limit updraft   
   organization and the overall severe potential. That being said, a   
   few stronger storms with small, sub-severe hail and gusty winds are   
   possible. The overall severe potential is currently forecast to   
   remain too isolated to include any 5% probabilities.   
      
   ..Mosier/Wendt.. 11/22/2025   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 4/0 19/10 88/0 90/0 93/1 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 128/187 129/14 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/700   
   SEEN-BY: 218/840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1 6 360 226/18 30 44 50 227/114   
   SEEN-BY: 229/110 206 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512   
   SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 200 342/200   
   SEEN-BY: 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 880/1 900/0 102 106 902/0 19   
   SEEN-BY: 902/26 904/0 13 905/0 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5019/40 5020/400   
   SEEN-BY: 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 341/66 902/26 229/426