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   FOUS30 KWBC 221558   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1058 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Sat Nov 22 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 23 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA...   
      
   ...16z Update...   
      
   Introduced a Marginal Risk with the 16z update, as the latest 12z   
   CAMs support a lower-end, localized flash flood threat later today   
   with mostly clear skies and building insolation over portions of   
   southeast into central AZ. SB CAPE should climb to ~250 J/kg with   
   updrafts tending to initially favor higher terrain and points   
   north, as storm motions of 15-25 kts to the north to northeast are   
   expected within the mean flow. With precipitable water values   
   anticipated to build to around 0.8" (well above the 90th percentile   
   and more representative of September/October), a period of localized   
   1"+/hr rates are possible with small downdrafts and relatively=20   
   fast motions generally capping hourly totals around 0.5". Some=20   
   repeating and training of cells may locally support hourly totals=20   
   of 0.5"+ and short-term (2-3 hour) totals of 1.5-2.0" are possible.   
   This may result in a few localized instances of flash flooding=20   
   (mainly concentrated late in the period from 00z-09z).=20   
      
   Churchill   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sun Nov 23 2025 - 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF   
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...   
      
   The latest guidance continues to depict a southwest-northeast   
   orientated axis of heavy rain panning from the northern part of the   
   Hill Country to northeast Texas. General consensus suggests 1 to 3   
   inches however, the ECMWF is persistent on the higher end with   
   amounts 3 to 5+ inches and placed further south/southwest than   
   other solutions. This is somewhat concerning, as this brings the   
   forecast axis of QPF even more into alignment with areas that   
   realized heavy rainfall in prior days.   
      
   A Slight Risk remains in effect and seems appropriate given at   
   least three days of recovery from the previous heavy rainfall   
   event and uncertainty with regard to the amount of training and   
   resultant QPF.   
      
   Campbell/Churchill   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025 - 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR NORTHEAST   
   TEXAS, NORTHERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS AND   
   NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...   
      
   The broad area of showers and thunderstorms are expected to shift   
   to the eastern portion of the Southern Plains and the Lower   
   Mississippi Valley. The highest amounts are expected to focus over   
   the AK-LA-TX region. While areal averages of 1 to 3 inches are   
   forecast, isolated maximums of 4+ inches will be possible. There   
   will be some overlap of heavy rainfall from the previous day which   
   will lower local FFGs. Training and back building of storms may be   
   possible, particularly for norther Texas and Arkansas. A Slight   
   Risk is in effect from northeast Texas/northern Louisiana to   
   western Tennessee/northwest Mississippi.   
      
   Campbell   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8DtLSETe4u9xPK0q7uzjZ06ucirTbxqLJqzlAWNqxUXp=   
   VGNf-MZKFCcfB9p5nOrvh4v5sJzurrVtW9vH35kxX6Q5AIE$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8DtLSETe4u9xPK0q7uzjZ06ucirTbxqLJqzlAWNqxUXp=   
   VGNf-MZKFCcfB9p5nOrvh4v5sJzurrVtW9vH35kxb0TbZjw$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8DtLSETe4u9xPK0q7uzjZ06ucirTbxqLJqzlAWNqxUXp=   
   VGNf-MZKFCcfB9p5nOrvh4v5sJzurrVtW9vH35kxRE2WgIc$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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