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   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0634 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025   
      
   Valid 221300Z - 231200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the Southwest,   
   mainly from late in the day into the overnight. Limited activity may   
   occur over North Carolina and southern Virginia. Severe thunderstorm   
   potential appears low.   
      
   ...TX to SE States...   
   A zonal flow pattern is present today over the eastern half of the   
   CONUS, with a surface cold front moving across the TN Valley into   
   the Carolinas.  A few thunderstorms will be possible along/ahead of   
   the front from east TX into much of the southeast states today and   
   tonight, but the risk of severe activity is low.   
      
   ...Southwest States...   
   A compact upper low will track eastward across Baja California this   
   afternoon, with an associated mid-level cold pocket affecting   
   northwest Mexico and the Four-Corners states.  Model guidance agrees   
   that scattered thunderstorms will affect these areas by late   
   afternoon and through the evening.  A few of the HREF members   
   indicate some risk of strong storms with small hail and gusty winds   
   over southeast AZ.  However, forecast soundings do not appear   
   sufficient to warrant severe probabilities at time.   
      
   ..Hart/Broyles.. 11/22/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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