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   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0254 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025   
      
   Valid 251200Z - 301200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   ...Day 4/Tue - Southeast...   
   A cold front will continue east across the Southeast on Tuesday as a   
   surface low deepens across the Upper Midwest. This strengthening   
   surface low, will sharpen the cold front during the day as it   
   advances east. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected   
   across MS/AL ahead of this cold front. Mid-level flow will   
   strengthen through the day and provide ample deep-layer shear for   
   storm organization. A few supercells capable of isolated large hail   
   may be possible. A focused zone of severe weather potential likely   
   exists from central Mississippi to northern Alabama, but   
   probabilities are not high enough to warrant a 15% contour at this   
   time.   
      
   ...Day 5/Wed - East Coast...   
   As this cold front continues east on Wednesday, low 60s dewpoints   
   will continue to advect northward ahead of the cold front.   
   Instability is forecast to remain mostly weak across the Carolinas   
   and into eastern Virginia on Wednesday, but given the strong wind   
   field, some damaging wind gusts may be possible.   
      
   High pressure will bring a dry/cool airmass to much of the eastern   
   CONUS by the end of next week which will limit severe weather   
   potential.   
      
   Southerly return flow is forecast to resume by next weekend which   
   could eventually lead to renewed severe weather potential across   
   portions of the Southern Plains and eventually the Southeast.   
      
   ..Bentley.. 11/22/2025   
      
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