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   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0230 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025   
      
   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST   
   TEXAS AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Strong to severe storms are expected across eastern Texas into the   
   Mid-Mississippi Valley on Monday afternoon and evening. Isolated   
   Large hail and a tornado or two will be the primary threats.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A mid-level trough will deamplify as it moves from the central   
   Plains to the southern Great Lakes on Monday. A secondary mid-level   
   trough will amplify as it moves through the northern Plains and into   
   the Upper Midwest. A more consolidated surface low will develop   
   across the Upper Midwest by the end of the period. A warm front will   
   lift from near the Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by   
   Monday evening. A somewhat diffuse cold frontal zone will extend   
   from the Ozarks to the southern Plains.   
      
   ...Eastern Texas into the Mid-Mississippi Valley...   
   Rich low-level moisture will advect northward across East Texas and   
   Louisiana on Monday. This will result in moderate instability ahead   
   of the frontal zone from East Texas into Louisiana. Extensive   
   cloudcover may be a limiting factor to greater destabilization, but   
   sufficient instability is expected for strong to severe storms   
   Monday afternoon/evening. A messier storm mode is expected near the   
   ArkLaTex, but a more favorable zone may exist south of this area   
   where supercell storm mode will be favored. Long hodographs with   
   largely streamwise low-level hodographs may result in some tornado   
   threat, in addition to the large hail threat. While the greatest   
   threat is expected during the late afternoon to early evening, some   
   threat will likely persist into the overnight period as a mostly   
   uncapped moderately unstable airmass is expected to persist amid   
   rich low-level moisture.   
      
   ..Bentley.. 11/22/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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