TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 166919.weather@1:2320/105 2d8933e6   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   FOUS30 KWBC 220818   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   318 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Sat Nov 22 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 23 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Campbell   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sun Nov 23 2025 - 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF   
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...   
      
   The latest guidance continues to depict a southwest-northeast=20   
   orientated axis of heavy rain panning from the northern part of the   
   Hill Country to northeast Texas. General consensus suggests 1 to 3   
   inches however, the ECMWF is persistent on the higher end with   
   amounts 3 to 5+ inches and placed further south/southwest than=20   
   other solutions. This is somewhat concerning, as this brings the=20   
   forecast axis of QPF even more into alignment with areas that=20   
   realized heavy rainfall in prior days.=20   
      
   A Slight Risk remains in effect and seems appropriate given at   
   least three days of recovery from the previous heavy rainfall   
   event and uncertainty with regard to the amount of training and=20   
   resultant QPF.   
      
   Campbell/Churchill   
      
      
   Day 3 Valid 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025 - 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR NORTHEAST   
   TEXAS, NORTHERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS AND   
   NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...   
      
   The broad area of showers and thunderstorms are expected to shift   
   to the eastern portion of the Southern Plains and the Lower   
   Mississippi Valley. The highest amounts are expected to focus over   
   the AK-LA-TX region. While areal averages of 1 to 3 inches are   
   forecast, isolated maximums of 4+ inches will be possible. There   
   will be some overlap of heavy rainfall from the previous day which   
   will lower local FFGs. Training and back building of storms may be   
   possible, particularly for norther Texas and Arkansas. A Slight=20   
   Risk is in effect from northeast Texas/northern Louisiana to=20   
   western Tennessee/northwest Mississippi.   
      
   Campbell   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8R-ZVULKLnGkE6RuPrnA5P3fSHt7jn6p-KUPZbakYfDh=   
   MCoFx-Eqay8-AZ24FUcfiS-OjrfW2oRk-DQ5kggr7OhK-nU$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8R-ZVULKLnGkE6RuPrnA5P3fSHt7jn6p-KUPZbakYfDh=   
   MCoFx-Eqay8-AZ24FUcfiS-OjrfW2oRk-DQ5kggr02eDICs$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8R-ZVULKLnGkE6RuPrnA5P3fSHt7jn6p-KUPZbakYfDh=   
   MCoFx-Eqay8-AZ24FUcfiS-OjrfW2oRk-DQ5kggrglWgqoU$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 19/10 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302 128/187 129/14   
   SEEN-BY: 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/700 840 220/10 20 30   
   SEEN-BY: 220/70 90 221/1 6 360 226/17 18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110   
   SEEN-BY: 229/206 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512 267/800   
   SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 342/200 396/45   
   SEEN-BY: 460/58 633/280 712/848 770/1 100 340 350 772/210 220 230   
   SEEN-BY: 902/26 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 218/840 770/1 633/280 229/426