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   FOUS11 KWBC 220732   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   232 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025   
      
   Valid 12Z Sat Nov 22 2025 - 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025   
      
      
   ...Southern Rockies...   
   Days 1-2.5...   
      
   An upper-low just west of Baja California will move eastward today   
   and northeastward tonight, spreading rain and high mountain snow   
   across AZ then into CO/NM tomorrow. Healthy subtropical moisture   
   will be directed at the Southern Rockies at the same time as   
   diffluent flow aloft supports upper-level ascent atop the   
   atmosphere. Upslope enhancement into some of the mountain ranges   
   such as the Gila Mountains, the San Juans, and the Sangre De Cristo   
   will aid in producing modest snow totals for the mountain peaks.   
   The upper low will cross over the Four Corners region and bring   
   heavier snow to the San Juans and Sangre de Cristos, but at high   
   elevations. Snow will taper off on Monday as the upper low slowly   
   fills.   
      
   Given the lack of a cold antecedent air-mass, snow levels will   
   struggle to dip much lower than 7,000ft. Elevations above 9,000ft   
   in the Mogollon Rim and Gila Mountains and the more remote   
   elevations above 10,000ft in the San Juans and Sangre De Cristos   
   will see the heaviest snow. WPC probabilities for at least 8 inches   
   of snow are >50% above about 11,000ft in the more remote/higher   
   ridge lines of the San Juans and Sangre De Cristo range. WPC   
   probabilities are low-to-moderate (20-50%) for storm total snowfall   
   >8" over the White Mountains in eastern AZ.   
      
   ...Pacific Northwest & Northern Rockies...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   A Pacific disturbance embedded within quasi-zonal flow will usher   
   in a progressive, but potent, frontal system into WA/OR/ID and   
   northwestern MT Sunday. As the cold front traverses the Pacific   
   Northwest, snow levels around 5000-6000ft Sunday afternoon will   
   drop to as low as 2,000ft on the windward side of the Cascades by   
   early Monday as precipitation begins to taper off. WPC   
   probabilities for >4" of snow do range between 30-60% in both   
   Stevens and Snoqualmie Passes, with potentially upwards of 6"   
   possible.   
      
   Snow will also spread across northern ID into northwestern MT late   
   Sunday and through Monday as moisture associated with the Pacific   
   system moves through. Additional heavy snowfall along the Lewis   
   Range on Monday may be enhanced by easterly upslope flow due to   
   strengthening high pressure to the north. WPC probabilities for at   
   least 8 inches of snow are >50% across the Lewis Range and above   
   7000ft where more than a foot of snow is possible at the highest   
   elevations.   
      
   ...Northeast...   
   Day 2...   
      
   A clipper system rotating beneath the base of an broad upper-low   
   over Quebec will push quickly through northern NY/New England   
   Sunday afternoon/evening and exit to the east by Monday morning.   
   QPF and therefore snowfall may be somewhat limited due to its fast   
   movement, but some upslope enhancement may yield a bit more than   
   2-3" of snow across the Tug Hill, Adirondacks, and both the Green   
   and northern White Mountains. WPC probabilities for at least 4   
   inches of snow are low (10-40%) in these areas generally above   
   15000-2000ft.   
      
      
   The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than   
   10 percent.   
      
   Fracasso/Mullinax   
      
      
   $$   
      
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