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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 220459   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 220457   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1057 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025   
      
   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the Southwest,   
   mainly from late in the day into the overnight. Limited activity may   
   occur over North Carolina and southern Virginia. Severe thunderstorm   
   potential appears low.   
      
   ...Synopsis and Discussion...   
   An upper low will move across northern Baja CA today, and will   
   gradually weaken as it moves into AZ by Sunday morning. Cooling   
   aloft with this system along with midlevel moistening will   
   eventually result in widespread precipitation over much of AZ and   
   NM, including a few thunderstorms. Given the elevated nature of the   
   instability overnight, severe storms are not anticipated.   
      
   To the east, a low-amplitude upper trough will move across VA and NC   
   during the day. Low pressure near the DelMarVa will quickly move out   
   to sea as a cold front pushes south out of VA and into NC. Here,   
   residual dewpoints near 60 F along with daytime heating will result   
   in minimal SBCAPE within a westerly flow regime, possibly supporting   
   isolated thunderstorms late afternoon or evening. Strong deep-layer   
   shear will support cellular storm mode, but instability and lapse   
   rates do not appear to favor severe hail.   
      
   ..Jewell/Halbert.. 11/22/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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